Quantitative risk assessment of human campylobacteriosis associated with thermophilic Campylobacter species in chickens
Quantitative risk assessment of human campylobacteriosis associated with thermophilic Campylobacter species in chickens
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DOI：
10.1016/s0168-1605(02)00317-3
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发表时间：
2003-05-25
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Christensen, BB
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Rosenquist, H;Nielsen, NL;Christensen, BB
已经编制了一份定量风险评估，包括危害识别、危害特性描述、接触评估和风险特性描述，以评估不同缓解策略对丹麦与嗜热弯曲杆菌属相关的人类病例数量的影响。在鸡身上。为了估计人类从鸡肉中接触弯曲杆菌的情况以及与这种接触有关的人类病例数，开发了一个数学风险模型。该模型详细说明了弯曲杆菌在鸡从屠宰到消费的传播和转移，以及摄入剂量和发生弯曲杆菌病的概率之间的关系。人体接触是在两个连续的数学模块中估算的。模块I讨论了屠宰场整个加工步骤中鸡尸体上弯曲杆菌的流行率和数量的变化。单元二介绍弯曲杆菌在私房菜馆处理食物过程中的传播。消费者的年龄和性别也包括在这一模块中，以介绍在食物准备过程中的不同卫生水平以及不同的膳食大小和组成。最后，将暴露评估模块的结果与Beta-Poisson剂量反应模型相结合，以提供风险估计。旨在预测不同缓解策略效果的模拟结果表明，通过将鸡尸体上的弯曲杆菌数量减少2个对数，可以将与食用鸡肉相关的弯曲杆菌病发病率降低30倍。为了获得类似的发病率降低，鸡群患病率应降低约30倍或厨房卫生改善约30倍。屠宰过程中阳性鸡群与阴性鸡群的交叉污染对人弯曲杆菌的发病率几乎没有影响，这表明物流屠宰的实施对风险的影响很小。最后，模拟显示，18-29岁的人患弯曲杆菌病的风险最高。(C)2002 Elsevier Science B. V.保留所有权利。
A quantitative risk assessment comprising the elements hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment, and risk characterization has been prepared to assess the effect of different mitigation strategies on the number of human cases in Denmark associated with thermophilic Campylobacter spp. in chickens. To estimate the human exposure to Campylobacter from a chicken meal and the number of human cases associated with this exposure, a mathematical risk model was developed. The model details the spread and transfer of Campylobacter in chickens from slaughter to consumption and the relationship between ingested dose and the probability of developing campylobacteriosis. Human exposure was estimated in two successive mathematical modules. Module I addresses changes in prevalence and numbers of Campylobacter on chicken carcasses throughout the processing steps of a slaughterhouse. Module 2 covers the transfer of Campylobacter during food handling in private kitchens. The age and sex of consumers were included in this module to introduce variable hygiene levels during food preparation and variable sizes and compositions of meals. Finally, the outcome of the exposure assessment modules was integrated with a Beta-Poisson dose-response model to provide a risk estimate. Simulations designed to predict the effect of different mitigation strategies showed that the incidence of campylobacteriosis associated with consumption of chicken meals could be reduced 30 times by introducing a 2 log reduction of the number of Campylobacter on the chicken carcasses. To obtain a similar reduction of the incidence, the flock prevalence should be reduced approximately 30 times or the kitchen hygiene improved approximately 30 times. Cross-contamination from positive to negative flocks during slaughter had almost no effect on the human Campylobacter incidence, which indicates that implementation of logistic slaughter will only have a minor influence on the risk. Finally, the simulations showed that people in the age of 18-29 years had the highest risk of developing campylobacteriosis. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.