Modelling disease spread in a novel host:: rabies in the European badger Meles meles
Modelling disease spread in a novel host:: rabies in the European badger Meles meles
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DOI：
10.1046/j.1365-2664.2002.00773.x
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发表时间：
2002-12-01
影响因子：
5.7
通讯作者：
Wilkinson, D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Smith, GC;Wilkinson, D
1. 虽然红狐狐狸 (Vulpes vulpes) 是欧洲狂犬病的主要宿主，但众所周知，獾 (Meles) 种群受到严重影响。獾种群动态模型与狐狸/狂犬病模型相结合，以检验狂犬病在高密度獾种群中传播的可能性，例如在英国 (UK) 发现的獾种群。2。尽管存在一些关于獾狂犬病流行病学的数据，但没有关于獾与獾接触率（健康或患病动物）的数据。作为起点，专家意见被用来设计接触概率，并且发现该模型对做出这些估计的獾密度的比率的合理变化不敏感。3。密度相关（但不是密度无关）的接触概率模拟了欧洲大陆在低獾密度下可能发生的短链感染，并在较高密度下模拟了真实的动物流行病。4．欧洲大陆这些短感染链的另一个可能原因是社会群体之间的高度分裂5。鉴于英国某些地区的高水平领土连续性和可能的接触率，该模型表明狂犬病能够在英国獾种群中传播，并提供了一张显示动物流行可能性的临时地图。
1. Although the red fox Vulpes vulpes is the main reservoir of rabies in Europe, badger Meles meles populations are known to be drastically affected. Models of badger population dynamics are combined with a fox/rabies model to examine the possibility of rabies spread in high-density badger populations, such as those found in the United Kingdom (UK).2. Although some data exist on rabies epizootiology in the badger, there are no data on badger-to-badger contact rates (either healthy or diseased animals). As a starting point consensus expert opinion was used to devise contact probabilities, and the model was found to be insensitive to reasonable variation in these rates for the density of badgers at which these estimates were made.3. Density-dependent (but not density-independent) contact probabilities simulated short chains of infections that may occur in continental Europe at low badger densities, and simulated true epizootics at higher densities.4. Another possible reason for these short chains of infections in continental Europe is a very high level of fragmentation between social groups.5. Given the high level of territorial contiguity and possible contact rates found in some parts of the UK, the model suggests that rabies is capable of spreading within the UK badger population, and a provisional map showing the likelihood of an epizootic is presented.