Perceptions of Randomness: Why Three Heads Are Better Than Four
Perceptions of Randomness: Why Three Heads Are Better Than Four
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DOI：
10.1037/a0015241
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发表时间：
2009-04-01
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Warren, Pan A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hahn, Ulrike;Warren, Pan A.
心理学研究的悠久传统一直哀叹人们对随机机制（例如抛硬币）产生的序列特征的感知存在系统性错误和偏见。建议一旦考虑到人们对此类过程的实际经历的可能性质。这些“错误”和滑稽的“偏差”实际上是随机事件序列的概率特征的恰当反映。具体来说。看起来，偏差反映了短期记忆容量有限的智能体对有限数据流的主观体验。因此，这些偏差似乎并不是人们直觉统计的局限性的证明，而是人类认知系统与环境统计数据的精细协调程度的证明。
A long tradition of psychological research has lamented the systematic errors and biases in people's perception of the characteristics of sequences generated by a random mechanism Such as a coin toss. It is proposed that once the likely nature of People's actual experience Of Such processes is taken into account. these "errors" droll "biases" actually emerge as apt reflections of the probabilistic characteristics of sequences Of random events. Specifically. seeming, biases reflect the subjective experience of a finite data stream for an agent with a limited short-term memory capacity. Consequently, these biases seem testimony not to the limitations of people's intuitive statistics but rather to the extent to which the human cognitive system is finely attuned to the statistics of the environment.