Assessing the Skill of Medium-Range Ensemble Precipitation and Streamflow Forecasts from the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) for the Upper Trinity River Basin in North Texas
Assessing the Skill of Medium-Range Ensemble Precipitation and Streamflow Forecasts from the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) for the Upper Trinity River Basin in North Texas
复制标题
DOI：
10.1175/jhm-d-18-0027.1
复制
发表时间：
2018-09
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Sunghee Kim;H. Sadeghi;R. Limon;M. Saharia;D. Seo;A. Philpott;F. Bell;James D. Brown;M. He
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sunghee Kim;H. Sadeghi;R. Limon;M. Saharia;D. Seo;A. Philpott;F. Bell;James D. Brown;M. He
为了发布预警，让公众采取行动，应急管理人员采取预防措施，并为水管理人员以成本效益的方式运行他们的系统，有必要最大限度地提高径流预测的时间跨度。在这项工作中，我们评估中期集合降水预报的价值与美国国家气象局（NWS）的水文环境预报服务（HEFS）在增加的前置时间和技巧的径流预报五个源头流域在上Trinity河流域中北部德克萨斯州。HEFS使用国家环境预测中心（NCEP）的全球环境预报系统（GEFS）的集合平均降水预报。为了进行比较评估，我们验证合奏径流预报产生的HEFS迫使由GEFS预测与那些迫使短期定量降水预报（QPFs）从NWS西墨西哥湾河流预报中心（WGRFC）的指导下，从NCEP的天气预报中心。我们还评估的好处后处理的原始集合流量预测和评估的HEFS内的预测质量的选定参数的影响。结果表明，使用中期降水预报从GEFS与HEFS延长的时间范围熟练的平均日径流量预测1-3天的重大事件相比，仅使用72小时河流预报中心（RFC）QPF与HEFS。由GEFS强迫的HEFS也提高了两周前的双周流量预测的技能，比气候预测的最大1%的观测到的双周流量高出约20%。
To issue early warnings for the public to act, for emergency managers to take preventive actions, and for water managers to operate their systems cost-effectively, it is necessary to maximize the time horizon over which streamflow forecasts are skillful. In this work, we assess the value of medium-range ensemble precipitation forecasts generated with the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) of the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) in increasing the lead time and skill of streamflow forecasts for five headwater basins in the upper Trinity River basin in north-central Texas. The HEFS uses ensemble mean precipitation forecasts from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) of the National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP). For comparative evaluation, we verify ensemble streamflow forecasts generated with the HEFS forced by the GEFS forecast with those forced by the short-range quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) from the NWS West Gulf River Forecast Center (WGRFC) based on guidance from the NCEP’s Weather Prediction Center. We also assess the benefits of postprocessing the raw ensemble streamflow forecasts and evaluate the impact of selected parameters within the HEFS on forecast quality. The results show that the use of medium-range precipitation forecasts from the GEFS with the HEFS extends the time horizon for skillful forecasting of mean daily streamflow by 1–3 days for significant events when compared with using only the 72-h River Forecast Center (RFC) QPF with the HEFS. The HEFS forced by the GEFS also improves the skill of two-week-ahead biweekly streamflow forecast by about 20% over climatological forecast for the largest 1% of the observed biweekly flow.