Predicting plant diversity patterns in Madagascar: understanding the effects of climate and land cover change in a biodiversity hotspot.
Predicting plant diversity patterns in Madagascar: understanding the effects of climate and land cover change in a biodiversity hotspot.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0122721
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Mulligan M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brown KA;Parks KE;Bethell CA;Johnson SE;Mulligan M
气候和土地覆被变化正在推动热带生态系统中陆地生物群落的重大重组。为了了解热带地区的生物多样性模式将如何应对这两个环境变化驱动因素的单独和综合影响，我们使用物种分布模型（SDM）校准最近的气候和土地覆盖变量，并预测未来的情景来预测马达加斯加的多样性模式的变化。共收集到828属2186种植物的发生记录。我们开发了三个场景，（即，仅气候、仅土地覆被和气候-土地覆被组合）。我们使用这个模型框架来研究气候和土地覆盖变化的影响如何影响生态区和海拔带的生物多样性。马达加斯加各地的植物生物多样性发生了大规模的气候和土地覆盖变化，包括多样性的损失和增加。预计东部陡坡和高海拔生态系统的生物多样性下降幅度最大。多样性的急剧下降是由气候-土地覆被组合情景造成的;然而，每种情景的模型输出结果存在细微的区域差异，某些区域在仅气候或土地覆被模型下经历了相对较高的物种损失。我们强烈警告说，预计未来的植物多样性的收益将取决于发展和维持的扩散途径，连接当前和未来的合适的栖息地。面对未来环境变化，对马达加斯加植物多样性的预测令人担忧：由于气候和土地覆盖变化的综合影响，区域多样性将继续减少，杜鹃花灌木丛和东部低地及亚湿润森林等生境今后将特别脆弱。
Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence records for 828 plant genera and 2186 plant species. We developed three scenarios, (i.e., climate only, land cover only and combined climate-land cover) based on recent and future climate and land cover variables. We used this modelling framework to investigate how the impacts of changes to climate and land cover influenced biodiversity across ecoregions and elevation bands. There were large-scale climate- and land cover-driven changes in plant biodiversity across Madagascar, including both losses and gains in diversity. The sharpest declines in biodiversity were projected for the eastern escarpment and high elevation ecosystems. Sharp declines in diversity were driven by the combined climate-land cover scenarios; however, there were subtle, region-specific differences in model outputs for each scenario, where certain regions experienced relatively higher species loss under climate or land cover only models. We strongly caution that predicted future gains in plant diversity will depend on the development and maintenance of dispersal pathways that connect current and future suitable habitats. The forecast for Madagascar’s plant diversity in the face of future environmental change is worrying: regional diversity will continue to decrease in response to the combined effects of climate and land cover change, with habitats such as ericoid thickets and eastern lowland and sub-humid forests particularly vulnerable into the future.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0704346104
发表时间：
2007-08-21
影响因子：
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