An unexpected disruption of the atmospheric quasi-biennial oscillation
An unexpected disruption of the atmospheric quasi-biennial oscillation
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DOI：
10.1126/science.aah4156
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发表时间：
2016-09-23
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Zhang, Chunxi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Osprey, Scott M.;Butchart, Neal;Zhang, Chunxi
在大气中观察到的最可重复的现象之一，赤道平流层（约16至50公里高度）中盛行的东风和向西喷流之间的准两年振荡（QBO），在2016年2月意外中断。一个前所未有的向西急流形成的向东阶段在平流层下部，不能占的标准QBO范式的基础上垂直动量输送。相反，主要原因是来自北方的波浪输送动量。季节性预报没有预测到这种干扰，但在一些气候模拟中，类似的QBO干扰非常偶尔。预测在未来一年内将恢复到更典型的QBO行为，尽管预测气候变暖可能会更频繁地发生类似的中断。
One of the most repeatable phenomena seen in the atmosphere, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) between prevailing eastward and westward wind jets in the equatorial stratosphere (approximately 16 to 50 kilometers altitude), was unexpectedly disrupted in February 2016. An unprecedented westward jet formed within the eastward phase in the lower stratosphere and cannot be accounted for by the standard QBO paradigm based on vertical momentum transport. Instead, the primary cause was waves transporting momentum from the Northern Hemisphere. Seasonal forecasts did not predict the disruption, but analogous QBO disruptions are seen very occasionally in some climate simulations. A return to more typical QBO behavior within the next year is forecast, although the possibility of more frequent occurrences of similar disruptions is projected for a warming climate.