Quantitative Theory and Econometrics
Quantitative Theory and Econometrics
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数量理论与计量经济学
DOI：
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发表时间：
1995
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
R. King
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. King
数量经济学使用简单、抽象的经济模型和少量的经济数据来突出主要的经济机制。为了说明数量理论的方法，我们回顾了保罗道格拉斯、罗伯特索洛和爱德华普雷斯科特对生产函数的研究。考虑这些研究需要一个重要的研究领域，从最早的日子，通过当代真实的商业周期分析。在这些定量理论研究中，经济模型以两种方式被使用。首先，它们被用来以一种新的和具有启发性的方式组织经济数据。其次，模型与经济数据相结合，以显示特定理论机制的成功和失败。正如我们将看到的，这些特征在三项研究中都有，但程度不同。这些定量理论研究改变了经济学家对总量生产函数的看法，即，关于一个描述许多公司的总产出如何与投入总量，特别是劳动力和资本投入总量相关的方程。道格拉斯告诉经济学家，生产函数可以是一个重要的应用工具，以及一个理论装置，通过巧妙地结合产出指数与资本和劳动力投入指数。索洛告诉经济学家，生产函数不能用来解释长期增长，如果没有他称之为技术进步的剩余因素。普雷斯科特告诉经济学家，索洛的残差具有足够强的顺周期性，可以作为经济增长的一个来源。
Quantitative theory uses simple, abstract economic models together with a small amount of economic data to highlight major economic mechanisms. To illustrate the methods of quantitative theory, we review studies of the production function by Paul Douglas, Robert Solow, and Edward Prescott. Consideration of these studies takes an important research area from its earliest days through contemporary real business cycle analysis. In these quantitative theoretical studies, economic models are employed in two ways. First, they are used to organize economic data in a new and suggestive manner. Second, models are combined with economic data to display successes and failures of particular theoretical mechanisms. Each of these features is present in each of the three studies, but to varying degrees, as we shall see. These quantitative theoretical investigations changed how economists thought about the aggregate production function, i.e., about an equation describing how the total output of many firms is related to the total quantities of inputs, in particular labor and capital inputs. Douglas taught economists that the production function could be an important applied tool, as well as a theoretical device, by skillfully combining indexes of output with indexes of capital and labor input. Solow taught economists that the production function could not be used to explain long-term growth, absent a residual factor that he labeled technical progress. Prescott taught economists that Solow’s residual was sufficiently strongly procyclical that it might serve as a source of economic