Estimation of the serial interval and basic reproduction number of COVID-19 in Qom, Iran, and three other countries: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak
Estimation of the serial interval and basic reproduction number of COVID-19 in Qom, Iran, and three other countries: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak
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DOI：
10.1111/tbed.13656
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发表时间：
2020-06-16
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Nazari, Seyed Saeed Hashemi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Aghaali, Mohammad;Kolifarhood, Goodarz;Nazari, Seyed Saeed Hashemi
中国首次报告了COVID-19疫情，并于2020年2月19日在伊朗库姆确诊了第一例病例。感染的基本繁殖数（R-0）在不同的种群和时期是可变的。本研究旨在估计伊朗库姆市新冠肺炎的R(0)，并与其他国家进行比较。为了估计序列间隔，我们使用了伊朗库姆51例COVID-19确诊病例及其318名密切接触者的数据。使用暴发早期每日确诊病例数和估计的序列间隔进行R(0)估计。我们在库姆、伊朗、中国、意大利和韩国使用时变方法作为偏差最小的方法来估计R(0)。基于Qom数据估计的序列间隔为伽玛分布，均值为4.55天，标准差为3.30天。本研究估计库姆的R(0)在2到3之间。在研究的四个国家中，韩国（1.5-2）的R(0)估计最低，伊朗（4-5）最高。敏感性分析表明，R(0)对应用的平均发电时间敏感。据作者所知，本研究是第一个在库姆估计R(0)的研究。为控制疫情，应通过降低接触率、降低传播概率、缩短感染期等措施减少繁殖数量。
The outbreak of COVID-19 was first reported from China, and on 19 February 2020, the first case was confirmed in Qom, Iran. The basic reproduction number (R-0) of infection is variable in different populations and periods. This study aimed to estimate the R(0)of COVID-19 in Qom, Iran, and compare it with that in other countries. For estimation of the serial interval, we used data of the 51 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and their 318 close contacts in Qom, Iran. The number of confirmed cases daily in the early phase of the outbreak and estimated serial interval were used for R(0)estimation. We used the time-varying method as a method with the least bias to estimate R(0)in Qom, Iran, and in China, Italy and South Korea. The serial interval was estimated with a gamma distribution, a mean of 4.55 days and a standard deviation of 3.30 days for the COVID-19 epidemic based on Qom data. The R(0)in this study was estimated to be between 2 and 3 in Qom. Of the four countries studied, the lowest R(0)was estimated in South Korea (1.5-2) and the highest in Iran (4-5). Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that R(0)is sensitive to the applied mean generation time. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this study is the first to estimate R(0)in Qom. To control the epidemic, the reproduction number should be reduced by decreasing the contact rate, decreasing the transmission probability and decreasing the duration of the infectious period.