Trends and variability in vertical ozone and temperature profiles measured by ozonesondes at Lauder, New Zealand: 1986-1996
Trends and variability in vertical ozone and temperature profiles measured by ozonesondes at Lauder, New Zealand: 1986-1996
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DOI：
10.1029/98jd02581
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发表时间：
1998-11-27
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Matthews, WA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bodeker, GE;Boyd, IS;Matthews, WA
本文首次分析了1986年8月至1996年7月间在Lauder（南纬45.045度，东经169.684度）进行的臭氧探测飞行的垂直臭氧和温度变化趋势。为了计算臭氧和温度变化的趋势并确定其强迫机制的大小，将线性最小二乘回归模型应用于臭氧混合比、臭氧数密度和温度，插值到从地表（969 hPa/370 m）到12.1 hPa（类似于30.1 km）的100个压力水平，类似于300个地球位能米。臭氧变化趋势表明，冬季对流层上层每10年臭氧减少幅度大于-30+/-24%（2西格玛），对流层顶以上窄海拔区域涡旋破裂后臭氧变化趋势为-20+/-20%（2西格玛），而平流层下层在冬末、春季和初夏臭氧变化趋势高达30+/-14% / 10年（2西格玛）。冬季的主要温度趋势为+1.5% / 10年，高于50 hPa水平。导出的趋势对纳入对流层顶高度强迫很敏感，发现对流层顶高度强迫对臭氧和温度的影响具有很高的统计显著性。在冬季、春季和初夏，兰黛的臭氧在整个平流层下部显示出明显的QBO依赖性，但对太阳周期的依赖性很小或没有依赖性。然而，温度对QBO的依赖不大，但受太阳活动周期的影响。皮纳图博火山喷发对兰黛臭氧影响不大，但显著冷却了对流层。除最上层分析层外，臭氧和温度的ENSO循环较弱。
A first analysis of trends in vertical ozone and temperature profiles from ozonesonde flights made at Lauder (45.045 degrees S, 169.684 degrees E) between August 1986 and July 1996, is presented. To calculate the trends and determine the magnitude of the forcing mechanisms underlying the variability in ozone and temperature, a linear least squares regression model was applied to ozone mixing ratios, ozone number densities, and temperatures, interpolated onto 100 pressure levels from the surface (969 hPa/370 m) to 12.1 hPa (similar to 30.1 km), similar to 300 geopotential meters apart. Ozone trends indicate wintertime upper tropospheric decreases of more than -30+/-24% per decade (2 sigma), post vortex breakup trends in a-narrow altitude region above the tropopause of -20+/-20% per decade (2 sigma), and positive trends of up to 30+/-14% per decade (2 sigma) in the lower stratosphere during late winter, spring, and early summer. The predominant temperature trend is +1.5% per decade and greater above the similar to 50 hPa level during winter. Derived trends were sensitive to inclusion of tropopause height forcing which was found to influence ozone and temperature at a high level of statistical significance. Ozone at Lauder shows significant QBO dependence throughout the lower stratosphere during winter, spring, and early summer, but little or no dependence on the solar;cycle. Temperatures, however, show little dependence on QBO but were influenced by the solar cycle. The Mt. Pinatubo eruption had little influence on Lauder ozone but significantly cooled the troposphere. The ENSO cycle in ozone and temperature was weak except at the uppermost analysis levels.