The Euro goes East: Implications of the 2000–2002 Economic Slowdown for Synchronisation of Business Cycles between the Euro area and CEECs
The Euro goes East: Implications of the 2000–2002 Economic Slowdown for Synchronisation of Business Cycles between the Euro area and CEECs
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欧元东移：2000-2002年经济放缓对欧元区和中东欧国家经济周期同步的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2003
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
I. Korhonen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Fidrmuc;I. Korhonen
我们评估了1993/1995年至2002年欧元区现有国家和欧盟（EU）加入候选国之间的供求冲击的相关性。从产出增长和通货膨胀的估计结构向量自回归模型中恢复供应和需求冲击。值得注意的是，2000年至2002年的经济放缓增加了欧元区和加入国之间商业周期的异质性。我们发现，几个加入国有相当高的相关性与欧元区的潜在冲击，并得出结论，欧盟内部的持续一体化可能会调整这些国家的商业周期的方式类似于同步的供应和需求的冲击，我们在20世纪90年代的欧盟文件。
We assess the correlation of supply and demand shocks between current countries in the euro area and European Union (EU) accession candidates from 1993/1995 to 2002. Supply and demand shocks are recovered from estimated structural vector autoregressive models of output growth and inflation. Notably, the economic slowdown between 2000 and 2002 increased heterogeneity of business cycles between the euro area and acceding counties. We find that several acceding countries have a quite high correlation of underlying shocks with the euro area and conclude that continuing integration within the EU is likely to align the business cycles of these countries in a manner similar to the synchronisation of supply and demand shocks that we document for the EU in the 1990s.