ESTIMATING INTERVENTION EFFECTS IN LONGITUDINAL-STUDIES
ESTIMATING INTERVENTION EFFECTS IN LONGITUDINAL-STUDIES
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DOI：
10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a115399
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发表时间：
1989-10-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
JOHNSON, CA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
DWYER, JH;MACKINNON, DP;JOHNSON, CA
旨在评估干预措施对疾病风险因素影响的纵向研究经常面临一些统计问题。这些问题包括：1）通过有序类别测量的因变量，2）结果水平之间的许多潜在相关的过渡模式，3）混合的分析单元（例如，社会单位的分配，而在理论上的个人），4）不完全随机化，和5）相关的估计连续场合的纵向测量。青少年吸烟、饮酒和吸食大麻的纵向数据（n = 1，244，完整数据），用于证明这些问题的解决方案：1）比例优势回归模型，2）基线水平和干预效果之间相互作用的条件logistic转换模型，3）使用线性回归方法对按社会单位汇总的测量进行估计的逻辑模型，4）效应大小的条件和无条件模型，以及5）重复测量逻辑回归技术。与各种模型拟合的面板数据得出了以下关于中西部预防项目中干预效果的结论：与对照学校相比，治疗学校中吸烟者的患病率降低（8%对18%在一年随访的最后一周吸烟），大麻使用效果的混合证据，以及没有证据表明对酒精使用的影响。
Longitudinal studies aimed at assessing the impact of interventions on disease risk factors often confront several statistical problems. These problems include 1) dependent variables measured by ordered categories, 2) numerous potentially relevant patterns of transition between outcome levels, 3) mixed units of analysis (e.g., assignment of social unit while theorizing in terms of individuals), 4) incomplete randomization, and 5) correlated estimates of successive occasions of longitudinal measurement. Longitudinal data on use of cigarettes, alcohol, and marijuana among adolescents (n = 1,244, complete data) from the Midwestern Prevention Project are used to demonstrate solutions to each of these problems: 1) a proportional odds regression model, 2) conditional logistic models of transitions with interactions between baseline levels and intervention effect, 3) a logistic model estimated with linear regression methods on measures aggregated by social unit, 4) conditional and unconditional models of effect magnitude, and 5) a repeated measures logistic regression technique. Panel data fit to the various models yielded the following conclusions concerning intervention effects in the Midwestern Prevention Project: reduction in the prevalence of cigarette users in treatment schools compared with control schools (8% vs. 18% smoked in the last week at one year follow-up), mixed evidence of an effect on marijuana use, and no evidence of an effect on alcohol use.