Present-day and future Antarctic ice sheet climate and surface mass balance in the Community Earth System Model
Present-day and future Antarctic ice sheet climate and surface mass balance in the Community Earth System Model
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DOI：
10.1007/s00382-015-2907-4
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发表时间：
2016-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
van den Broeke, Michiel R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lenaerts, Jan T. M.;Vizcaino, Miren;van den Broeke, Michiel R.
我们目前的气候和表面质量平衡（SMB）的南极冰盖（AIS）的模拟全球，耦合海洋-大气-陆地共同体地球系统模式（CESM）的水平分辨率的过去，现在和未来（1850-2100年）。CESM正确地模拟了现今南极海冰范围、大尺度大气环流和近地表气候，但未能模拟南极海冰的近期扩张。现今南极冰盖SMB等于，这与AIS SMB的现有独立估计一致。在两个CMIP 5气候变化情景（高缓解情景RCP2.6和高排放情景RCP8.5）的推动下，CESM预测南极冰盖SMB每升温约70度。这一增长是由降雪量增加推动的，而降雪量的增加部分地被更多的表面融化和沿着沿着冰盖边缘的径流所抵消。这种加剧的水文循环主要是由大气变暖驱动的，大气变暖增加了（1）大气的水分承载能力，（2）海洋源区蒸发，（3）夏季AIS云液态水含量。
We present climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) as simulated by the global, coupled ocean-atmosphere-land Community Earth System Model (CESM) with a horizontal resolution of in the past, present and future (1850-2100). CESM correctly simulates present-day Antarctic sea ice extent, large-scale atmospheric circulation and near-surface climate, but fails to simulate the recent expansion of Antarctic sea ice. The present-day Antarctic ice sheet SMB equals , which concurs with existing independent estimates of AIS SMB. When forced by two CMIP5 climate change scenarios (high mitigation scenario RCP2.6 and high-emission scenario RCP8.5), CESM projects an increase of Antarctic ice sheet SMB of about 70 per degree warming. This increase is driven by enhanced snowfall, which is partially counteracted by more surface melt and runoff along the ice sheet's edges. This intensifying hydrological cycle is predominantly driven by atmospheric warming, which increases (1) the moisture-carrying capacity of the atmosphere, (2) oceanic source region evaporation, and (3) summer AIS cloud liquid water content.