Import Switching and the Impact of a Large Devaluation
Import Switching and the Impact of a Large Devaluation
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进口转换和大幅贬值的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Luis Fernando Mej
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Dan Lu;A. Mariscal;Luis Fernando Mej
在哥伦比亚，从1998年到1999年，在一次巨大的外部冲击期间，RER贬值了26%，进口额下降了32%。由于进口在贬值期间变得更加昂贵，我们预计从进口市场退出的公司会增加，继续经营的公司也会有更大的品种下降。然而，使用详细的公司层面的进口交易，我们发现，与正常时期相比，从公司的价值下降的品种和出口福尔斯下降。可以肯定的是，我们确实发现企业使用较少的进口品种，但这是由于较少增加新的进口品种，而不是更多的品种下降。在企业调整机制方面，我们发现：（1）大多数进口商一直在增加和减少进口品种。2)公司以相似的强度增加和减少品种。3)继续经营的企业的产品价值和产品价值都与汇率呈负相关，进入和退出也是如此。我们的研究结果表明，企业选择他们的进口品种，并重新组织他们的进口投入和生产随着时间的推移。本文将寻找进口中间投入引入到一个具有进口中间投入内生选择的模型中。企业寻找进口投入品供应商并重新组织其投入品使用。随着输入成本的冲击，例如，货币贬值，企业寻找新供应商的收益减少，导致企业进口投入的增减减少。我们的模型着重于进口重组的动态方面，并表明货币贬值可以减缓进口搅动，并导致比以前发现的更大的TFP下降。模型预测，生产率更高的企业使用更多的进口投入，同时进行更多的添加和删除。在货币贬值期间，增加和减少进口品种的企业较少，如果它们增加和减少进口品种，则增加和减少进口品种在其总进口中所占的份额减少。在数据中，企业层面的进口转换行为与这些预测是一致的，结果是稳健的控制出口转换行为。
In Colombia, from 1998 to 1999, during a large external shock the RER depreciated by 26% and import value dropped 32%. Since imports became more expensive during the devaluation, we would expect increases in exit of firms from the import market as well as larger dropped varieties for continuing firms. However, using detailed firm level import transactions, we find that compared to normal times the value from firms dropped varieties and exit falls. To be sure, we do find that firms use less imported varieties, but its due to fewer adding of new imported varieties rather than more dropping of varieties. Regarding firms adjustment mechanisms, we find: 1) Most importers add and drop import varieties all the time. 2) Firms add and drop varieties with similar intensity. 3) Both the values of added and dropped products by continuing firms comove negatively with the exchange rate, as does entry and exit. Our findings suggest firms select their imported varieties, and reorganize their imported inputs and production over time. We introduce searching for imported inputs into a model with endogenous choice of import intermediate inputs. Firms search for imported inputs suppliers and reorganize their input usage. With an imported input cost shock, e.g., a devaluation, the benefit from searching new suppliers decreases, which leads to less adding and dropping in firms' imported inputs. Our model focuses on the dynamic aspects of import reorganization, and shows that a devaluation can slow down the import churning and lead to larger TFP declines beyond those previously found. The model predicts more productive firms use more imported inputs, and do more adding and dropping at the same time. During the devaluation, there are fewer firms add and drop import varieties, and if they do, the shares of adding and dropping among their total import decreases. In the data, firm level imports switching behavior is consistent with these predictions, and results are robust to controlling for export switching behavior.