Essence of backcasting
Essence of backcasting
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DOI：
10.1016/s0016-3287(96)00044-4
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发表时间：
1996-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Dreborg, KH
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dreborg, KH
可持续发展是一个高度复杂的问题领域，从长远来看，它可能要求工业化社会进行重大变革。未来研究如何有助于针对这些问题的政策形成过程？关于未来，什么样的知识是最需要的？本文认为，回溯法由于其解决问题的特点，非常适合解决这类长期问题。追溯了反向铸造背后的基本理论假设。一个结论是，回溯的优点应该在发现的背景下判断，而不是在正当理由的背景下判断。此外，如果一个人倾向于把目的论看作是除了因果关系之外的一种特殊的理解形式，那么反推就变得有趣了。回溯研究通常旨在为决策者和感兴趣的一般公众提供未来的图像，作为形成意见和作出决定的背景。版权所有爱思唯尔科学有限公司
Sustainable development is a highly complex problem area, which will probably call for major changes of industrialized societies in the long run. How could futures studies contribute to a policy forming process directed to these problems? And what kind of knowledge about the future is most needed? It is argued that a backcasting approach, due to its problem-solving character, is well suited to these kinds of long-term problems. Fundamental theoretical assumptions behind backcasting are traced. One conclusion is that the merits of backcasting should be judged in the context of discovery rather than in the context of justification. Also, if one is inclined to see teleology as a specific form of understanding, beside causality, then backcasting becomes interesting. Backcasting studies typically aim at providing policy makers and an interested general public with images of the future as a background for opinion forming and decisions. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd