Is There a Balloon Effect? Coca Crops and Forced Eradication in Colombia
Is There a Balloon Effect? Coca Crops and Forced Eradication in Colombia
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有气球效应吗？
DOI：
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
L. Morales
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Eleonora Dávalos;L. Morales
古柯种植公顷数不断增加的一种解释是，根除战略取代了古柯作物，但未能完全清除受影响地区。在毒品政策文献中，这种动态变化通常被称为气球效应。本研究整合地理参考农业数据，通过空间明确的计量经济学模型，以测试的假设，强制根除产生溢出效应。使用2001年至2010年期间哥伦比亚1，116个相邻城市的年度数据，我们估计了具有市政和时间固定效应的空间Durbin模型（SDM）。在市政一级，我们没有发现气球效应的证据。我们的研究结果表明，在一个城市的空中根除活动减少了8%的新的古柯种植面积在该城市和3%的邻近城市。因此，与气球效应假设相反，空中根除产生了负面的溢出效应。我们的研究结果为政策设计提供了更深入的见解。在我们的分析中，我们能够区分由于在市内外开展根除活动而造成的古柯种植变化。
One explanation for the increasing number of hectares with coca cultivation is that eradication strategies displace coca crops but fail to completely clear affected areas. In the drug policy literature, that dynamic shifting is commonly known as the balloon effect. This study integrates georeferenced agricultural data through spatially explicit econometric models to tests the hypothesis that forced eradication generates spillover effects. Using annual data for 1,116 contiguous municipalities in Colombia between 2001 and 2010, we estimate a spatial Durbin model (SDM) with municipal and time fixed effects. At municipal level, we find no evidence of the balloon effect. Our results suggest that aerial eradication activities in a municipality reduce the new area under coca cultivation by 8 percent inside that municipality and by 3 percent in neighboring municipalities. Therefore, and contrary to the balloon effect hypothesis aerial eradication generates negative spillover effects. Our results provide deeper insights for policy design. In our analysis, we are able to distinguish between the change in coca cultivation as a result of eradication activities inside and outside the municipality.