Selecting the best model to estimate potential evapotranspiration with respect to climate change and magnitudes of extreme events
Selecting the best model to estimate potential evapotranspiration with respect to climate change and magnitudes of extreme events
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DOI：
10.1016/j.agwat.2016.08.025
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发表时间：
2017-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
M. Valipour;Mohammad Ali Gholami Sefidkouhi;M. R. Sarjaz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Valipour;Mohammad Ali Gholami Sefidkouhi;M. R. Sarjaz
为了选择最佳模型来估计特定气候或地区的潜在蒸散量 (ETo)，进行了大量的研究。在本文中，气候类型包括干旱、半干旱、地中海气候和非常潮湿。本文的目的是根据高峰和低谷事件（极端事件）和气候变化警报，对 ETo 进行时空研究。为此，收集了伊朗18个不同气候地区的50年（1961-2010）月度气象数据。为了估计 ETo，根据过去的研究，选择了 5 个基于温度的模型、5 个基于辐射的模型和 5 个基于传质的模型，以使其在不同气候下具有更好的性能。结果对于可以获得每月（而不是每日）气象数据的地区尤其有用。结果表明，Blaney−Criddle (BC)（均方根误差 (RMSE) = 1.32 mm day−1）和 Abtew (Ab) (RMSE = 0.83 mm day−1) 分别是估计干旱和半干旱地区 ETo 的最佳模型。而修改后的 Hargreaves−Samani 2 (MHS2) 代表了地中海和非常潮湿地区的最佳性能（RMSE 分别 = 0.30 mm day−1 和 0.68 mm day−1）。此外，基于辐射和传质的模型是在分别提高研究区域40%和70%的评估指数值的基础上估算EToin暖季和冷季的合适工具。为了实现大多数模型的最佳性能，气温升高和最低相对湿度降低对伊朗大部分地区的气候变化发出了警报。因此，基于辐射的模型比基于温度的模型，特别是基于传质的模型更能适应气候变化。最后，提出了一个逐步流程图，用于选择最佳模型来估计每种气候的 EToin。
There are a lot of investigations to select the best model to estimate potential evapotranspiration (ETo) in a certain climate or region. In this paper, the types of climate include arid, semiarid, Mediterranean, and very humid. A spatial and temporal study of the ETois the aim of this paper, according to the peak and low events (extreme events) and climate change alarms. For this purpose, 50 years (1961–2010) monthly meteorological data of 18 regions in Iran, with various climates, were collected. For estimating the ETo, 5 temperature−based, 5 radiation−based, and 5 mass transfer−based models, were selected with respect to better performance of them in different climates on the basis of past investigations. The results will especially be useful in the regions where the monthly (rather than daily) meteorological data are available. The results appear that the Blaney−Criddle (BC) (root mean square error (RMSE) = 1.32 mm day−1) and Abtew (Ab) (RMSE = 0.83 mm day−1) are the best models for estimating the EToin the arid and semiarid regions, respectively. While, modified Hargreaves−Samani 2 (MHS2) represents the best performance in the Mediterranean and very humid regions (RMSE = 0.30 mm day−1& 0.68 mm day−1, respectively). In addition, radiation—and mass transfer−based models are proper tools to estimate the EToin warm and cold seasons on the basis of improving values of evaluation indices in 40% and 70% of the study area, respectively. Increasing air temperature and decreasing minimum relative humidity for best performance of most models alarms a climate change in most regions of Iran. As a result, the radiation−based models were adapted with climate change better than the temperature−based and particularly mass transfer−based models. Finally, a step by step flowchart was presented for selecting the best model to estimate the EToin each climate.