Evaluating the effects of climate change on US agricultural systems: sensitivity to regional impact and trade expansion scenarios
Evaluating the effects of climate change on US agricultural systems: sensitivity to regional impact and trade expansion scenarios
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/aac1c2
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发表时间：
2018-06-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
McFarland, James
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Baker, Justin S.;Havlik, Petr;McFarland, James
农业是预计受气候变化影响最大的部门之一。人们对评估这些影响很感兴趣，最近的许多研究使用一系列模型调查了个别国家和区域的农业影响。然而，绝大多数现有的研究探讨了对一个国家或地区的影响，而没有明确说明对世界其他地区的影响。鉴于全球贸易在农业部门的重要性，这种方法可能会使农业影响评估的结果产生偏差。由于对相对竞争力、国际贸易、全球供应和价格的潜在影响，气候变化对每个区域农业部门的净影响不仅取决于该区域内的生产力影响，还取决于气候变化如何影响全世界的农业生产力。在这项研究中，我们应用全球农业和林业模型来评估气候变化对美国农业的影响，并考虑到气候变化对世界其他地区的影响。此外，我们还研究了贸易扩大的情况，以探讨对生产，贸易量和价格的区域分配的影响。据我们所知，这是在对气候变化影响进行区域评估时明确量化核算全球气候变化的相对重要性的仅有尝试之一。我们的分析结果显示，在考虑全球影响与仅考虑美国影响时，对美国农业部门的估计影响存在重大差异，特别是对于美国在全球生产中所占份额较小的商品。此外，我们发现，更自由的贸易可以发挥重要作用，帮助缓冲区域生产力冲击。
Agriculture is one of the sectors that is expected to be most significantly impacted by climate change. There has been considerable interest in assessing these impacts and many recent studies investigating agricultural impacts for individual countries and regions using an array of models. However, the great majority of existing studies explore impacts on a country or region of interest without explicitly accounting for impacts on the rest of the world. This approach can bias the results of impact assessments for agriculture given the importance of global trade in this sector. Due to potential impacts on relative competitiveness, international trade, global supply, and prices, the net impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector in each region depend not only on productivity impacts within that region, but on how climate change impacts agricultural productivity throughout the world. In this study, we apply a global model of agriculture and forestry to evaluate climate change impacts on US agriculture with and without accounting for climate change impacts in the rest of the world. In addition, we examine scenarios where trade is expanded to explore the implications for regional allocation of production, trade volumes, and prices. To our knowledge, this is one of the only attempts to explicitly quantify the relative importance of accounting for global climate change when conducting regional assessments of climate change impacts. The results of our analyses reveal substantial differences in estimated impacts on the US agricultural sector when accounting for global impacts vs. US-only impacts, particularly for commodities where the United States has a smaller share of global production. In addition, we find that freer trade can play an important role in helping to buffer regional productivity shocks.