An Individual-based Model Approach for the Conservation of the Sumatran Tiger Panthera tigris sumatrae Population in Central Sumatra
An Individual-based Model Approach for the Conservation of the Sumatran Tiger Panthera tigris sumatrae Population in Central Sumatra
复制标题
苏门答腊中部苏门答腊虎 Panthera tigris sumatrae 种群保护的基于个体的模型方法
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发表时间：
2010
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通讯作者：
M. Imron
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Imron
敏感性分析昂贵的计算成本阻碍了这些技术在生态学中分析基于个体的模型的使用。选择相对便宜的计算成本（称为莫里斯方法）来评估所有参数对模型输出的相对影响，并深入了解捕食者-被捕食者系统。比较了苏门答腊虎模型Panthera种群持续性（PPP）和Notonecta觅食模型（NFM）的结构和敏感性分析结果。这两个模型都基于一般的捕食周期，旨在了解所考虑的捕食者与被捕食者相互作用背后的机制。然而，这些模型在复杂性和所涉及过程的细节方面存在显着差异。 PPP模型的结果显示，亲代照顾时间、狩猎半径和猎物生长率分别是对老虎数量和猎物死亡数量、分散老虎数量和剩余猎物数量最有影响的参数。逆游者的攻击率参数是导致逆游者模型中被吃掉的水蚤数量波动的原因。研究结果强调了敏感性分析的重要性，特别是针对任何基于个体的模型的早期开发的筛选设计。此外，该模型的结构比较和敏感性分析为实际保护和概念理解提供了对捕食者-被捕食者模型的深入了解。 4.1.
The expensive computational cost of sensitivity analyses has hampered the use of these techniques for analysing individual-based models in ecology. A relatively cheap computational cost, referred to as the Morris method, was chosen to assess the relative effects of all parameters on the model’s outputs and to gain an insight into predator-prey systems. The structure and results of the sensitivity analysis of the Sumatran tiger model the Panthera Population Persistence (PPP) and the Notonecta foraging model (NFM) were compared. Both models are based on a general predation cycle and designed to understand the mechanisms behind the predator-prey interaction being considered. However, the models differ significantly in their complexity and the details of the processes involved. The results from the PPP model displayed that the parental-care time duration, the hunting radius, and the growth rate of prey were the most influential parameters for the number of tigers and the prey killed, the number of dispersed tigers, and the remaining prey, respectively. The attack rate parameters of backswimmers were responsible for the fluctuation in the number of daphnid eaten in the backswimmer model. The findings highlight the importance of the sensitivity analysis, and in particular the screening design for early development of any individual-based models. Furthermore, the model’s structure comparison and sensitivity analysis provide insight into predator-prey models for both practical conservation and conceptual understanding. 4.1.