Regional population projections for China
Regional population projections for China
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发表时间：
2003-12
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通讯作者：
F. Tóth;G. Cao;E. Hizsnyik
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作者：
F. Tóth;G. Cao;E. Hizsnyik
考虑到中国的规模和区域多样性，对许多经济和政策问题的审慎分析需要考虑气候，土壤，水和其他自然资源禀赋，人口密度以及社会和经济发展的区域差异。面向未来的多区域评估需要详细的区域设想方案。这种假设的一个关键组成部分是不同区域人口的演变。对于土地利用变化和农业的研究，需要这种按区域分列的人口预测来估计区域粮食需求和区域劳动力供应。如果明确地对迁移迁移过程进行建模，这些场景还可以用作对开发引起的迁移进行建模的背景信息。随着中国经济日益融入世界经济，近年来对这一过程的不同特征进行分析的研究越来越多。越来越多的研究在某种程度上对区域细节进行评估，需要区域设想方案来提供关于人口地理分布的背景资料。本报告中提出的区域人口预测是为了在这些研究中使用而编制的。该报告结合了2000年至2030年期间国家一级的人口情况，以及2000年人口普查中有关各省人口分布的信息，并根据历史数据对各省出生率、死亡率、城市化和省际移民进行了预测。可获得区域分辨率和年龄组汇总三个级别的结果。本报告在两个层面上提出了区域人口预测。在第一级，各省合并为8个经济地理区。这种级别的聚合使建模活动更加易于处理，但它仍然保留了合理程度的空间同质性。在更详细的层面上，我们认为31个省是官方界定的管辖区（截至2000年）。本报告包含各省和八个地区按三个主要年龄组（0-14岁、15-64岁和65岁及以上）汇总的城市、农村和总人口表。在第三个层面，也是最详细的层面，还提供了涵盖17个五岁年龄组、31个省和8个地区、农村、城市和总人口的综合表格。
Considering the size and the regional diversity of China, a prudent analysis of many economic and policy issues needs to consider the regional differences in climate, soil, water, and other natural resource endowments, population density, and social and economic development. Future-oriented multi-regional assessments require regionally detailed scenarios. A key component of such scenarios is the evolution of the population in different regions. For studies of land-use change and agriculture, such regionally disaggregated population projections are needed for estimating regional food demand and regional labor supply. These scenarios can also serve as background information for modeling development-induced migration, if migration migration processes are explicitly modeled. With Chinas increasing integration in the world economy, the number of studies analyzing different features of this process has been booming recently. An increasing number of studies undertake their assessments at some level of regional detail and need regional scenarios to provide background information about the geographical distribution of people. The regional population projections presented in this report are developed for use in such studies. The report combines national-level demographic scenarios for the period 2000 through 2030 with information about the provincial population distribution from the year 2000 census and projections of provincial birth-rate, death-rate, rate, urbanization, and interprovincial migration based on historical data. Results are available at three levels of regional resolution and age-group aggregation. This report presents the regional population projections at two levels. At the first level, the provinces are merged into eight economic-geographical regions. This level of aggregation makes modeling activities more tractable, but it still preserves a reasonable degree of spatial homogeneity. At the more detailed level, we consider the 31 provinces as the officially defined jurisdictions delineate them (as of 2000). The present report contains tables of urban, rural, and total population aggregated to three main age groups: 0-14, 15-64, and 65 and above for the provinces and for the eight regions. At the third and most detailed level, comprehensive tables covering 17 five-year age groups, 31 provinces and the 8 regions, rural, urban, and total population are also available.