Effects of anthropogenic activity emerging as intensified extreme precipitation over China
Effects of anthropogenic activity emerging as intensified extreme precipitation over China
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DOI：
10.1002/2016jd026251
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发表时间：
2017-07-16
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Wang, Huijun
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li, Huixin;Chen, Huopo;Wang, Huijun
本研究旨在评估1961 - 2005年中国极端降水增加的人为强迫和其他外部因素的影响。极端降水量由年最大1天降水量（RX 1D）和年最大5天连续降水量（RX 5D）表示，这些变量使用耦合模式相互比较项目第5阶段的观测和模拟进行了研究。分析主要集中在基于概率的指数（PI），这是由RX 1D和RX 5D通过拟合广义极值分布。结果表明，包括ANT强迫的模拟提供了中国极端降水的时空特征的最好的代表。我们使用最佳指纹方法获得的单变量和多变量指纹的响应外强迫。结果表明，只有ANT强迫是检测在90%的置信水平，无论是单独的，当自然强迫被认为是同时。与温室气体（GHGs）相关的强迫的影响也可以在RX 1D中检测到，但它的影响不能与在双信号分析中排除GHGs强迫的强迫组合的影响分开。此外，在非平稳气候状态下，PI、极端降水和20年一遇事件的估计变化可能归因于ANT或GHG强迫，ANT强迫的极端降水和温度之间的关系与观测结果一致。
This study aims to provide an assessment of the effects of anthropogenic (ANT) forcings and other external factors on observed increases in extreme precipitation over China from 1961 to 2005. Extreme precipitation is represented by the annual maximum 1 day precipitation (RX1D) and the annual maximum 5 day consecutive precipitation (RX5D), and these variables are investigated using observations and simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. The analyses mainly focus on the probability-based index (PI), which is derived from RX1D and RX5D by fitting generalized extreme value distributions. The results indicate that the simulations that include the ANT forcings provide the best representation of the spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme precipitation over China. We use the optimal fingerprint method to obtain the univariate and multivariate fingerprints of the responses to external forcings. The results show that only the ANT forcings are detectable at a 90% confidence level, both individually and when natural forcings are considered simultaneously. The impact of the forcing associated with greenhouse gases (GHGs) is also detectable in RX1D, but its effects cannot be separated from those of combinations of forcings that exclude the GHG forcings in the two-signal analyses. Besides, the estimated changes of PI, extreme precipitation, and events with a 20 year return period under nonstationary climate states are potentially attributable to ANT or GHG forcings, and the relationships between extreme precipitation and temperature from ANT forcings show agreement with observations.