Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict
Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict
复制标题
DOI：
10.1038/s41586-019-1300-6
复制
发表时间：
2019-07-11
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
von Uexkull, Nina
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mach, Katharine J.;Kraan, Caroline M.;von Uexkull, Nina
关于气候与冲突之间关系的研究结果多种多样，存在争议。在这里，我们评估了目前对气候与冲突之间关系的理解，基于来自不同学科的专家的结构化判断。这些专家一致认为，气候影响了国家内部的有组织武装冲突。然而，其他驱动因素，如社会经济发展水平低和国家能力低，被认为影响力更大，气候-冲突联系的机制仍然是一个关键的不确定性。据估计，气候变化加剧将增加未来发生冲突的风险。
Research findings on the relationship between climate and conflict are diverse and contested. Here we assess the current understanding of the relationship between climate and conflict, based on the structured judgments of experts from diverse disciplines. These experts agree that climate has affected organized armed conflict within countries. However, other drivers, such as low socioeconomic development and low capabilities of the state, are judged to be substantially more influential, and the mechanisms of climate-conflict linkages remain a key uncertainty. Intensifying climate change is estimated to increase future risks of conflict.