IT Failure Rates--70% or 10-15%?
IT Failure Rates--70% or 10-15%?
复制标题
IT%20失败%20率--70%%20或%2010-15%？
DOI：
10.1109/ms.2005.66
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发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
R. Glass
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Glass
这是一次闭卷测验。快速，现在-软件项目失败的百分比是多少？让我猜猜你的答案。很可能你说的是"百分之七十。“我说的对吗？现在，我想分析一下你为什么说那些话。我的一个朋友，Nicholas Zvegintzov（软件维护的首席大师），喜欢说，如果你追踪我们在我们的领域中“知道”的东西的来源，你会发现我们认为是过多的知识来源通常归结为只有少数几个。这就提出了一个问题：“我们从哪里获得软件故障率的信息？”“我看到很多学术研究论文都在大肆宣扬软件失败，以至于我不得不停止计数（他们倾向于看到一个“软件危机”，然后说他们所描述的研究工作将有助于消除它）。然而，如果你仔细检查他们用来支持危机索赔的引文，一次又一次地，引文归结为一个主要来源，斯坦迪什混沌报告。而且，如果你把事情再往前推一步，报纸通常会引用1994年的报告。我想质疑斯坦迪什报告的不容置疑的地位。那是因为，你看，我自己的观察使我相信斯坦迪什的发现有严重的错误。
This is a closed-book quiz. Quick, now - what percentage of software projects fail? Let me hazard a guess as to your answer. Odds are, you said something like "70 percent." Am I right? Now, I want to analyze why you said whatever you said. A friend of mine, Nicholas Zvegintzov (the Chief Guru of software maintenance), likes to say that, if you track down the sources of the things we "know" in our field, you'll find that what we thought was a plethora of sources for that knowledge generally boils down to only a precious few. That raises the question "Where do we get our information on software failure rates?" I've seen software failure trumpeted from so many academic research papers that I had to quit counting (they tend to see a "software crisis" and then say that the research work they're describing will help eliminate it). However, if you closely examine the citations they use to support the claims of crisis, over and over again the citations boil down to one primary source, the Standish Chaos Reports. And, if you take matters one step further, the papers generally cite the 1994 report. I want to question the unquestionable status of that Standish report. That's because, you see, my own observations lead me to believe that something is terribly wrong with those Standish findings.