Incidence, prevalence and mortality rates of malaria in Ethiopia from 1990 to 2015: analysis of the global burden of diseases 2015.
Incidence, prevalence and mortality rates of malaria in Ethiopia from 1990 to 2015: analysis of the global burden of diseases 2015.
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DOI：
10.1186/s12936-017-1919-4
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发表时间：
2017-07-04
期刊：
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Stanaway JD
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Deribew A;Dejene T;Kebede B;Tessema GA;Melaku YA;Misganaw A;Gebre T;Hailu A;Biadgilign S;Amberbir A;Yirsaw BD;Abajobir AA;Shafi O;Abera SF;Negussu N;Mengistu B;Amare AT;Mulugeta A;Mengistu B;Tadesse Z;Sileshi M;Cromwell E;Glenn SD;Deribe K;Stanaway JD
埃塞俄比亚没有完整的登记系统来准确衡量疾病负担和风险因素。在这项研究中，2015年全球疾病负担，伤害和风险因素（GBD）数据被用来分析埃塞俄比亚过去25年来疟疾的发病率，流行率和死亡率。GBD 2015使用死因推断调查、报告和已发表的科学文章来估计埃塞俄比亚的疟疾负担。使用死因综合模型估计了年龄和性别特异性疟疾死亡原因。疟疾新发病例数从1990年的280万例[95%不确定区间（UI）140 - 450万]下降到2015年的621，345例（95% UI 462，230 - 797，442）。疟疾在1990年估计造成30，323人死亡（95%UI 11，533.3 - 61，215.3），在2015年造成1561人死亡（95%UI 752.8-2660.5），25年减少了94.8%。1990年至2015年，疟疾的标准化死亡率下降了96.5%，年变化率为13.4%。1990年至2015年，所有年龄和性别的疟疾标准化发病率下降了88.7%。疟疾造成的残疾调整生命年损失（DALY）从1990年的220万（95%UI 0.76- 470万）下降到2015年的18万（95%UI 0.12-0.26万），总下降率为91.7%。同样，同期年龄标准化DALY率下降了94.8%。埃塞俄比亚已经实现了千年发展目标中疟疾发病率减少50%的目标。该国应加强其疟疾控制和治疗战略，以实现可持续发展目标。
In Ethiopia there is no complete registration system to measure disease burden and risk factors accurately. In this study, the 2015 global burden of diseases, injuries and risk factors (GBD) data were used to analyse the incidence, prevalence and mortality rates of malaria in Ethiopia over the last 25 years. GBD 2015 used verbal autopsy surveys, reports, and published scientific articles to estimate the burden of malaria in Ethiopia. Age and gender-specific causes of death for malaria were estimated using cause of death ensemble modelling. The number of new cases of malaria declined from 2.8 million [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 1.4–4.5 million] in 1990 to 621,345 (95% UI 462,230–797,442) in 2015. Malaria caused an estimated 30,323 deaths (95% UI 11,533.3–61,215.3) in 1990 and 1561 deaths (95% UI 752.8–2660.5) in 2015, a 94.8% reduction over the 25 years. Age-standardized mortality rate of malaria has declined by 96.5% between 1990 and 2015 with an annual rate of change of 13.4%. Age-standardized malaria incidence rate among all ages and gender declined by 88.7% between 1990 and 2015. The number of disability-adjusted life years lost (DALY) due to malaria decreased from 2.2 million (95% UI 0.76–4.7 million) in 1990 to 0.18 million (95% UI 0.12–0.26 million) in 2015, with a total reduction 91.7%. Similarly, age-standardized DALY rate declined by 94.8% during the same period. Ethiopia has achieved a 50% reduction target of malaria of the millennium development goals. The country should strengthen its malaria control and treatment strategies to achieve the sustainable development goals.