Analysis of Declining Fertility Rate in Japan by Focusing on TFR and Women Moving
Analysis of Declining Fertility Rate in Japan by Focusing on TFR and Women Moving
复制标题
以TFR和女性流动为中心分析日本生育率下降
DOI：
10.1007/978-3-031-06424-1_25
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Yumi Asahi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Shigeyuki Kurashima;Yumi Asahi
在日本，出生率正在逐年下降。如果这种情况继续下去，一半的市政当局将消失。最近，有许多关于生育率的研究使用TFR作为市政单位数据的基准。然而，在考虑市政层面时，在调查出生率下降的原因时，只关注TFR是不够的。在本文中，我们对生育率下降进行了分析，重点是TFR和妇女迁入和迁出地区。我们使用了没有考虑地区差异的OLS回归，以及允许包括地区差异的地理加权回归(GWR)。我们可以推断，低收入和妇女的社会进步，通常被认为是生育率下降的因素，但从结果中没有太大的影响。我们还发现，TFR存在着不能用本研究纳入的变量来解释的地区差异，地区差异呈现出西高东低的趋势。此外，当我们考察成功维持人口的地区的政策时，我们还发现，成功维持人口的政策中有共同的步骤。
In Japan, birth rates are declining year by year. If this goes on, half of municipalities will disappear. Recently, there have been many studies on fertility using TFR as a benchmark for municipal unit data. However, when considering the municipal level, it is not sufficient to focus only on the TFR in investigating the reason for the declining birthrate. In this paper, we conducted an analysis of fertility decline by focusing on TFR and women moving in and moving out of regions. We used OLS regression that do not take into account regional differences and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) which allows to include regional differences. We could infer that low income and women’s social advancement, which are generally considered to be factors in declining fertility, do not have much of an impact from the results. We also found that there are regional disparities in TFR that cannot be explained by the variables incorporated in this study, and regional disparities were a trend of west high and east low. In addition, when we looked at the policies of regions that have been successful in maintaining their populations, we also found that there are common steps in policies that are successful in maintaining population.