Pancreatic Cancer Mortality in China: Characteristics and Prediction
Pancreatic Cancer Mortality in China: Characteristics and Prediction
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DOI：
10.1097/mpa.0000000000000976
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发表时间：
2018-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Lin, Kun
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jia, Xiaoyue;Du, Peiling;Lin, Kun
目的：近十年来，我国胰腺癌的死亡率显著上升。我们分析了1991-2014年期间的数据，以调查死亡率的分布并预测未来5年的趋势。方法：我们从中国癌症年报中获得胰腺死亡数据。应用趋势面分析法研究其地理分布。结果：1991-2014年我国胰腺癌标化死亡率呈上升趋势，并可能在随后的5年内达到峰值。结论：胰腺癌死亡率呈上升趋势，这与我国社会经济发展和人口老龄化有关。预防战略应针对45岁或45岁以上的城市男子，特别是居住在死亡率较高地区的男子。
Objectives: During the last decade, the mortality rate of pancreatic cancer in China has significantly increased. We analyzed data for the period 1991-2014 to investigate the distribution of mortality rates and predict trends for the next 5 years.Methods: We obtained the pancreatic mortality data from the Chinese cancer annual report. Trend surface analysis was applied to study the geographical distribution. We used curve estimation, time series, grey box modeling, and joinpoint regression to predict the mortality rate.Results: Standardized pancreatic cancer mortality rate increased during 1991-2014 and might peak in the ensuing 5 years in China. The mortality rate was higher among elderly people and in urban and northeast/eastern areas than among young people and in rural and middle/western areas.Conclusions: Pancreatic cancer mortality shows an increasing trend, which is related to the socioeconomic development of China and the ageing of the population. Prevention strategies should be aimed at urban men 45 years or older, especially those residing in higher-mortality rate areas.