Risk mapping of visceral leishmaniasis: The role of local variation in rainfall and altitude on the presence and incidence of Kala-Azar in eastern Sudan
Risk mapping of visceral leishmaniasis: The role of local variation in rainfall and altitude on the presence and incidence of Kala-Azar in eastern Sudan
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DOI：
10.4269/ajtmh.2003.68.1.0680010
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发表时间：
2003-01-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Thomson, MC
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Elnaiem, DEA;Schorscher, J;Thomson, MC
内脏利什曼病（VL）是一种受环境因素影响较大的媒介传播疾病。开发了一个模型，根据不同的环境因素绘制苏丹东部Gedaref州VL的分布和发病率图。利用地理信息系统（GIS）提取并绘制了Gedaref邦190个村庄的环境变量回归结果，包括降雨量、植被状况、土壤类型、海拔、与河流的距离、地形、湿度指数和平均降雨量估算。根据医院记录计算每个村庄的VL发病率。通过使用逻辑和线性多元回归分析，建立了模型，以确定哪些环境因素解释了VL存在和发生率的变异性。我们发现平均降雨量和海拔高度是VL发病率的最佳预测因子。所得到的模型通过GIS软件进行映射，预测在Gedaref州任何地方的VL存在或不存在和发生率。讨论了与VL控制有关的结果。
Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a vector-borne disease highly influenced by environmental factors. A model was developed for mapping the distribution and incidence of VL in Gedaref State, eastern Sudan, in relation to different environmental factors. Geographical information systems (GIS) were used to extract and map regression results for environmental variables of 190 villages in Gedaref State, including rainfall, vegetation status, soil type, altitude, distance from river, topography, wetness indexes, and average rainfall estimates. VL incidence in each village was calculated from hospital records. By use of logistic and linear multivariate regression analyses, models were developed to determine which environmental factors explain variability in VL presence and incidence. We found that average rainfall and the altitude were the best predictors of VL incidence. The resulting models were mapped by GIS software predicting both VL presence or absence and incidence at any locality in Gedaref State. The results are discussed in relation to VL control.