The early anthropogenic hypothesis: Challenges and responses
The early anthropogenic hypothesis: Challenges and responses
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DOI：
10.1029/2006rg000207
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发表时间：
2007-12
影响因子：
25.2
通讯作者：
W. Ruddiman
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
W. Ruddiman
Ruddiman（2003）提出，全新世晚期的人为干预导致CH 4和CO2增加，使气候不冷却，而工业化前的流行病导致CO2减少和小幅冷却。这种早期人为假设的每个方面都受到了挑战：时间尺度，第11阶段作为更好的模拟物的问题，人类活动解释气体异常的能力，以及流行病的影响。本次审查发现，晚全新世的气体趋势是异常的所有冰的时间尺度;温室气体减少在最近的阶段11日射模拟;不成比例的生物质燃烧和水稻灌溉可以解释甲烷异常;和流行病解释一半的CO2减少自1000年前。然而，只有25%的二氧化碳异常可以用早期森林砍伐的碳来解释。其余的则必须来自气候系统的反馈，包括全新世海洋由于人为干预而保持异常温暖。
Ruddiman (2003) proposed that late Holocene anthropogenic intervention caused CH4 and CO2 increases that kept climate from cooling and that preindustrial pandemics caused CO2 decreases and a small cooling. Every aspect of this early anthropogenic hypothesis has been challenged: the timescale, the issue of stage 11 as a better analog, the ability of human activities to account for the gas anomalies, and the impact of the pandemics. This review finds that the late Holocene gas trends are anomalous in all ice timescales; greenhouse gases decreased during the closest stage 11 insolation analog; disproportionate biomass burning and rice irrigation can explain the methane anomaly; and pandemics explain half of the CO2 decrease since 1000 years ago. Only ∼25% of the CO2 anomaly can, however, be explained by carbon from early deforestation. The remainder must have come from climate system feedbacks, including a Holocene ocean that remained anomalously warm because of anthropogenic intervention.