Money demand and disinflation in selected CEECs during the accession to the EU
Money demand and disinflation in selected CEECs during the accession to the EU
复制标题
加入欧盟期间部分中东欧国家的货币需求和通货紧缩
DOI：
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发表时间：
2009
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Fidrmuc
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Fidrmuc
使用六个国家(捷克共和国、匈牙利、波兰、罗马尼亚、斯洛伐克和斯洛文尼亚)的面板数据，使用面板协整方法估计最近一段时期的货币需求。基本货币需求模型能够令人信服地解释选定国家M2的长期动态。然而，货币需求在很大程度上是由欧元区利率和欧元汇率决定的，这表明中东欧国家的货币需求功能可能不稳定。因此，在最终采用欧元之前，直接通胀目标制是一种合适的货币制度。
A panel data set for six countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia) is used to estimate money demand with panel cointegration methods over the recent disinflation period. The basic money demand model is able to convincingly explain the long-run dynamics of M2 in the selected countries. However, money demand is found to have been significantly determined by the euro area interest rates and the exchange rate against the euro, which indicates possible instability of money demand functions in the Central and Eastern European countries. Therefore, direct inflation targeting is an appropriate monetary regime before the eventual adoption of the euro.