Synergistic effects of climate change and agricultural land use on mammals
Synergistic effects of climate change and agricultural land use on mammals
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DOI：
10.1002/16-0110.1
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发表时间：
2016-02-01
影响因子：
10.3
通讯作者：
Brodie, Jedediah F.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Brodie, Jedediah F.
虽然气候变化和农业扩张是全球生物多样性的两个主要威胁，但它们通常被单独考虑。在这里，我表明，气候变化和农业扩张相互作用，协同影响哺乳动物在大型生物多样性的东南亚。气温上升不会直接减少大多数物种的生态位，但确实会引发油棕（Elaeis guineensis）种植区的重大海拔扩张，油棕是一种不耐寒的作物，目前仅限于热带低地。到2070年，由此导致的原生森林替代将使哺乳动物的活动范围减少47-67%，分别考虑低碳或高碳排放轨迹。这一减少幅度是不考虑气候影响的土地利用变化预测的3-4倍。气候变化和土地使用变化之间的协同作用大大超过了其中任何一个因素单独或两者相加对生物多样性的影响。
Although climate change and the expansion of agriculture are two of the primary threats to global biodiversity, they are usually considered independently. Here, I show that climate change and agricultural expansion interact synergistically in their impacts on mammals across mega-biodiverse Southeast Asia. Rising temperatures do not directly reduce niche availability for most species but do trigger a major altitudinal expansion in the cultivation zone for oil palm (Elaeis guineensis), a cold-intolerant crop tree that is currently restricted to tropical lowlands. The resulting replacement of native forests would reduce mammal ranges by 47-67% by 2070, given a low- or high-carbon-emissions trajectory, respectively. This reduction is 3-4 times the magnitude of that predicted from land-use change without considering climatic effects. The synergistic interaction between climate change and land-use change greatly outweighs the impact on biodiversity of either factor alone or their additive combination.