Spatio-temporal malaria transmission patterns in Navrongo demographic surveillance site, northern Ghana
Spatio-temporal malaria transmission patterns in Navrongo demographic surveillance site, northern Ghana
复制标题
DOI：
10.1186/1475-2875-12-63
复制
发表时间：
2013-02-13
期刊：
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Vounatsou, Penelope
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kasasa, Simon;Asoala, Victor;Vounatsou, Penelope
背景：疟疾传播强度和死亡率的昆虫学测量之间的关系仍然不确定。部分原因是，即使在很小的地理区域内，传播也是不均匀的。研究这种关系需要高分辨率、空间结构化、纵向昆虫学数据。用于分析时空异质性的地统计学模型没有考虑子孢子率（SR）和蚊子密度数据的不确定性。本研究分析了加纳北方Kassena-Nankana地区的数据，以获得小面积疟疾传播率的估计值，允许这种不确定性。方法：子孢子率和蚊子密度的独立贝叶斯地统计模型拟合，以产生小面积和短时间内的明确昆虫接种率（EIR）估计值，控制环境因素。在三年的时间里，主要使用CDC的灯光诱捕器从2,803个独特的地点诱捕蚊子。冈比亚按蚊占52%，其余为不吉按蚊。安的平均咬率。funestus和An.冈比亚分别为32人和33人。大多数叮咬发生在9月，最潮湿的月份。子孢子率在过去两年的干旱期比湿润期高。每年的EIR从1，132到157感染叮咬不等。每月EIR在零到388次感染性叮咬之间变化。SR的空间相关性低于蚊子density.Conclusion：这项研究证实了在一个小的地理区域内疟疾传播的时空异质性的存在。空间变异性强于时间，特别是在SR。估计的EIR将用于该地区的死亡率分析。
Background: The relationship between entomological measures of malaria transmission intensity and mortality remains uncertain. This is partly because transmission is heterogeneous even within small geographical areas. Studying this relationship requires high resolution, spatially structured, longitudinal entomological data. Geostatistical models that have been used to analyse the spatio-temporal heterogeneity have not considered the uncertainty in both sporozoite rate (SR) and mosquito density data. This study analysed data from Kassena-Nankana districts in northern Ghana to obtain small area estimates of malaria transmission rates allowing for this uncertainty.Methods: Independent Bayesian geostatistical models for sporozoite rate and mosquito density were fitted to produce explicit entomological inoculation rate (EIR) estimates for small areas and short time periods, controlling for environmental factors.Results: Mosquitoes were trapped from 2,803 unique locations for three years using mainly CDC light traps. Anopheles gambiae constituted 52%, the rest were Anopheles funestus. Mean biting rates for An. funestus and An. gambiae were 32 and 33 respectively. Most bites occurred in September, the wettest month. The sporozoite rates were higher in the dry periods of the last two years compared with the wet period. The annual EIR varied from 1,132 to 157 infective bites. Monthly EIR varied between zero and 388 infective bites. Spatial correlation for SR was lower than that of mosquito densities.Conclusion: This study confirms the presence of spatio-temporal heterogeneity in malaria transmission within a small geographical area. Spatial variance was stronger than temporal especially in the SR. The estimated EIR will be used in mortality analysis for the area.