How Quickly We Forget: The Duration of Persuasion Effects From Mass Communication
How Quickly We Forget: The Duration of Persuasion Effects From Mass Communication
复制标题
DOI：
10.1080/10584609.2013.828143
复制
发表时间：
2013-10-01
影响因子：
7.5
通讯作者：
Zaller, John
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hill, Seth J.;Lo, James;Zaller, John
学者们通常不会测试大众传播效果的持续时间，但当他们这样做时，他们通常会发现快速衰退。沟通一旦结束，说服力的影响也可能随之结束。为何如此衰败？大众传播会产生长期影响吗？这种衰落应该如何影响我们对大众传播效果的理解？我们用 2000 年总统选举和 2006 年地方选举中广告效果的数据来检验这些问题，但认为我们的模型和结果广泛适用于政治传播领域。我们发现，广告的大部分说服力影响很快就会衰减，但总统竞选中的某些效果会持续至少 6 周。这些结果与滚动横截面调查数据和实际总统投票的县级数据相似，似乎反映了基于记忆的处理（其影响仅与短期记忆持续一样长）和在线处理（其影响更持久）的混合。最后，我们发现广告的直接影响在地方选举中比在总统选举中更大，但衰减得更快、更彻底。 [本文提供了补充材料。请访问出版商的《政治传播》在线版，获取以下免费补充资源：方法论问题的讨论；关键型号替代规格的结果；模型结果的完整报告。]
Scholars do not usually test for the duration of the effects of mass communication, but when they do, they typically find rapid decay. Persuasive impact may end almost as soon as communication ends. Why so much decay? Does mass communication produce any long-term effects? How should this decay color our understanding of the effects of mass communication? We examine these questions with data from the effects of advertising in the 2000 presidential election and 2006 subnational elections, but argue that our model and results are broadly applicable within the field of political communication. We find that the bulk of the persuasive impact of advertising decays quickly, but that some effect in the presidential campaign endures for at least 6 weeks. These results, which are similar in rolling cross-section survey data and county-level data on actual presidential vote, appear to reflect a mix of memory-based processing (whose effects last only as long as short-term memory lasts) and online processing (whose effects are more durable). Finally, we find that immediate effects of advertising are larger in subnational than presidential elections, but decay more quickly and more completely. [Supplementary material is available for this article. Go to the publisher's online edition of Political Communication for the following free supplemental resource(s): discussion of methodological issues; results for a alternative specifications of key models; full reports of model results.]