Hurricane impact and recovery shoreline change analysis of the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, USA: 1855 to 2005
Hurricane impact and recovery shoreline change analysis of the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, USA: 1855 to 2005
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美国路易斯安那州钱德勒群岛的飓风影响和恢复海岸线变化分析：1855 年至 2005 年
DOI：
10.1007/s00367-009-0155-5
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发表时间：
2009
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
S. Penland
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Fearnley;M. Miner;M. Kulp;Carl Bohling;S. Penland
沿路易斯安那州钱德勒群岛进行的历史（1855-2005）海岸线变化分析结果表明，热带气旋频率主导了该屏障岛链的长期演变。在相对静止的时期，岛屿面积以-0.16平方公里/年的速度减少，直到1996年，热带气旋频率的增加加速了岛屿面积的减少，速度为-1.01平方公里/年。更频繁的飓风也影响了海岸线的退缩率，海岸线退缩率从 1922 年至 1996 年的每年 -11.4 m 增加到 1982 年至 2005 年的每年 -41.9 m。2005 年卡特里娜飓风的通过造成的侵蚀影响是前所未有的。 2004年至2005年间，北部岛屿的海岸线退缩了-201.5 m/年，而1922年至2004年期间的平均退缩率为-38.4 m/年。海岸线变化的线性回归分析预测，如果过去十年观察到的风暴频率持续下去，早在2013年，用于稳定障壁岛链的后障壁沼泽将被完全摧毁。如果风暴频率减少到 1996 年之前的复发间隔，预计后屏障沼泽将持续到 2037 年。现在不存在后屏障沼泽的障壁岛链南部部分表现为短暂的岛屿，在风暴影响后被摧毁，并在长时间的平静天气期间重新出现，这种沿海行为最终将成为整个岛链的特征。
Results from historical (1855–2005) shoreline change analysis conducted along the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana demonstrate that tropical cyclone frequency dominates the long-term evolution of this barrier island chain. Island area decreased at a rate of −0.16 km2/year for the relatively quiescent time period up until 1996, when an increase in tropical cyclone frequency accelerated this island area reduction to a rate of −1.01 km2/year. More frequent hurricanes also affected shoreline retreat rates, which increased from −11.4 m/year between 1922 and 1996 to −41.9 m/year between 1982 and 2005. The erosional impact caused by the passage of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 was unprecedented. Between 2004 and 2005, the shoreline of the northern islands retreated −201.5 m/year, compared with an average retreat rate of −38.4 m/year between 1922 and 2004. A linear regression analysis of shoreline change predicts that, as early as 2013, the backbarrier marsh that serves to stabilize the barrier island chain will be completely destroyed if storm frequency observed during the past decade persists. If storm frequency decreases to pre-1996 recurrence intervals, the backbarrier marsh is predicted to remain until 2037. Southern portions of the barrier island chain where backbarrier marsh is now absent behave as ephemeral islands that are destroyed after storm impacts and reemerge during extended periods of calm weather, a coastal behavior that will eventually characterize the entire island chain.