Shattering the Illusion of Control: Multi-shot Versus Single-Shot Gambles
Shattering the Illusion of Control: Multi-shot Versus Single-Shot Gambles
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打破控制的幻想：多发与单发赌博
DOI：
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发表时间：
1994
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Brian J. Gibbs
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Koehler;R. Hogarth;Brian J. Gibbs
控制错觉指的是一种现象，即人们认为他们在一项任务上成功的机会比客观分析所保证的更大。这篇文章提出了两个问题。首先，控制的幻觉有多强大？其次，这种错觉如何才能“破灭”？之前的实验演示涉及的情况可以比作独特的或一次性的赌博。然而，如果这种现象是稳健的，它应该发生在重复或多次赌博中，在这些赌博中，结果取决于涉及相同潜在随机过程的一系列赌博。它还应该出现在单杆赌博中，这种赌博的框架表面上类似于多杆赌博。我们将其称为强幻觉控制假说。另一方面，由于人们对他们能够表示为相对频率的任务中的概率概念有更好的理解，引入多镜头或“伪多镜头”语境可能会提示人们任务的随机性质，从而粉碎这种错觉。控制错觉假说认为，控制错觉会出现在单发赌博中，而不会出现在多发或伪多发赌博中。据报道，有两项研究支持这一弱假设。文中考虑了另一种解释，并讨论了其含义。
The illusion of control refers to a phenomenon whereby people believe their chances of success at a task are greater than would be warranted by objective analysis. This article raises two questions. First, how robust is the illusion of control? Second, how might the illusion be 'shattered?' Previous experimental demonstrations involved situations that can be likened to unique or single-shot gambles. If, however, the phenomenon is robust, it should occur in repeated or multi-shot gambles in which the outcome depends on a series of gambles involv- ing the same underlying random process. It should also appear in single-shot gambles that are framed so as to superficially resemble multi-shot gambles. We label this the strong illusion of control hypothesis. On the other hand, because people have a better appreciation of probabilistic concepts in tasks they are able to represent as relative frequencies, the introduction of a multi-shot or "pseudo- multi-shot" context might cue people to the random nature of the task, thereby shattering the illusion. The i\-eak illusion of control hypothesis holds that the illusion of control will occur in single-shot but not in multi-shot or pseudo-multi- shot gambles. Two studies are reported that support the weak hypothesis. Alterna- tive explanations are considered and implications are discussed.