The impact of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic on mortality in South Africa in 2020
The impact of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic on mortality in South Africa in 2020
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DOI：
10.7196/samj.2022.v112i1.16259
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发表时间：
2022-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Bradshaw, D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Dorrington, R E;Laubscher, R;Bradshaw, D
背景。 SARS-CoV-2 流行病对死亡率的影响以及管理该疾病的干预措施因国家而异。南非医学研究理事会根据国家人口登记册 (NPR) 的数据建立的快速死亡率监测系统提供了一种跟踪这种对南非死亡率的影响的方法。目标。报告 2015 年至 2020 年期间关键死亡率指标（死亡人数、出生时预期寿命、60 岁预期寿命以及婴儿、5 岁以下儿童、较大儿童和青少年、青壮年和成人死亡率）的变化。影响的主要特征与其他国家测量的结果进行了对比。方法。 NPR 记录的按年龄和性别分类的登记死亡人数有所增加，以考虑 NPR 未记录的登记死亡人数和未报告的死亡估计数。估计的死亡人数以及每年中期的人口估计数被用来制作生命表并计算各种指标。结果。 2019年至2020年间，死亡人数增加了近53-000人（65%为女性），女性出生时预期寿命下降了1岁，男性仅下降了2.5个月。 60岁时，女性的预期寿命减少了1.6岁，男性的预期寿命减少了1.2岁。婴儿死亡率、5岁以下死亡率和5-14岁儿童死亡率分别下降22%、20%和10%，大龄儿童和青少年死亡率男性下降11%，女性下降5%。成人过早死亡率，即 15 岁的年轻人在 60 岁之前死亡的概率，男性增加了 2%，女性增加了 9%。结论。 COVID-19 及其管理干预措施对不同年龄和性别的死亡率有不同的影响。疫情对2020年预期寿命的影响与大多数其他国家（主要是发达国家）不同，不仅下降幅度有限，而且对女性的影响更大。这些对预期寿命和死亡率的经验估计并未反映在各机构的估计中，要么是因为机构估计尚未针对流行病的影响进行更新，要么是因为它们没有正确考虑到影响。每周超额死亡的趋势表明，2021 年预期寿命下降幅度将大于 2020 年。
Background. The impacts on mortality of both the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and the interventions to manage it differ between countries. The Rapid Mortality Surveillance System set up by the South African Medical Research Council based on data from the National Population Register (NPR) provides a means of tracking this impact on mortality in South Africa.Objectives. To report on the change in key metrics of mortality (numbers of deaths, life expectancy at birth, life expectancy at age 60, and infant, under-5, older child and adolescent, young adult, and adult mortality) over the period 2015 - 2020. The key features of the impact are contrasted with those measured in other countries.Methods. The numbers of registered deaths by age and sex recorded on the NPR were increased to account for both registered deaths that are not captured by the NPR and an estimate of deaths not reported. The estimated numbers of deaths together with estimates of the numbers in the population in the middle of each of the years were used to produce life tables and calculate various indicators.Results. Between 2019 and 2020, the number of deaths increased by nearly 53-000 (65% female), and life expectancy at birth fell by 1 year for females and by only 2.5 months for males. Life expectancy at age 60 decreased by 1.6 years for females and 1.2 years for males. Infant mortality, under-5 mortality and mortality of children aged 5 - 14 decreased by 22%, 20% and 10%, respectively, while that for older children and adolescents decreased by 11% for males and 5% for females. Premature adult mortality, the probability of a 15-year-old dying before age 60, increased by 2% for males and 9% for females.Conclusions. COVID-19 and the interventions to manage it had differential impacts on mortality by age and sex. The impact of the epidemic on life expectancy in 2020 differs from that in most other, mainly developed, countries, both in the limited decline and also in the greater impact on females. These empirical estimates of life expectancy and mortality rates are not reflected by estimates from agencies, either because agency estimates have yet to be updated for the impact of the epidemic or because they have not allowed for the impact correctly. Trends in weekly excess deaths suggest that the drop in life expectancy in 2021 will be greater than that in 2020.