Untapping the Full Development Potential of Trade Along Global Supply Chains: A 'GVCs for LDCs' Proposal
Untapping the Full Development Potential of Trade Along Global Supply Chains: A 'GVCs for LDCs' Proposal
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充分挖掘全球供应链贸易的发展潜力：“最不发达国家的全球价值链”提案
DOI：
10.54648/trad2021029
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Lucian Cernat
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Antimiani;Lucian Cernat
有明确的证据表明，现有的优惠方案大大促进了最不发达国家的出口（Klasen等人，2016年）。许多人似乎认为，多边贸易体系对最不发达国家没有什么好处，因为它们已经根据目前的优惠计划获得了进入关键市场的市场准入。尽管最不发达国家不愿积极参与世贸组织最近的讨论，但全球贸易体系和新的多边倡议仍有空间促进最不发达国家参与全球价值链。鉴于最不发达国家的出口往往经过进一步加工，并作为仍面临关税的第三国出口的一部分“旅行”到全球价值链，可以设想一个基于最不发达国家增值的全球优惠计划，即，原产于任何世贸组织成员的产品，无论何时出口到任何其他世贸组织成员，都应获得与最不发达国家出口产品中所含投入物价值成比例的“最不发达国家优惠待遇”。我们将这一新的“最不发达国家全球价值链”建议概念化，并使用动态可计算一般均衡模型框架估计其经济潜力。如果最不发达国家的优惠市场准入从简单的“直接出口”办法（例如，如果将目前实行的类似普惠制的办法（即普惠制办法）改为全球价值链办法，最不发达国家的出口将得到相当大的推动（每年增长2.5%，价值超过100亿美元），其产品的市场溢价也会增加。
世贸组织、世界贸易组织、CGE建模、GTAP、发展、最不发达国家、全球价值链、全球价值链、普遍优惠制、普惠制
There is clear evidence that existing preferential schemes contributed significantly to boosting least-developed country (LDC) exports (Klasen et al., 2016). Many seem to believe the multilateral trading system could offer little to LDCs as they have already obtained market access to critical markets under the current preferential schemes. Despite the LDCs’ reluctance to positively engage in recent WTO discussions, there is room for the global trading system and new multilateral initiatives to promote the participation of LDCs in global value chains (GVCs). Given that LDC exports are often further processed and ‘travel’ down the GVCs as part of third-country exports still facing tariffs, one could envisage a global preferential scheme based on LDC value-added, i.e., products originating in any WTO members should receive an ‘LDC preferential treatment’ proportionate to the value of LDC’s inputs content embodied in their exports, whenever exported to any other WTO member. We conceptualize this new ‘GVCs for LDCs’ proposal and estimate its economic potential using a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling framework. If LDC preferential market access is changed from the simple ‘direct export’ approach (e.g., the Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP)-like schemes currently in operation) to a GVC approach, LDC exports would receive a considerable boost (a 2.5% annual increase worth over USD 10 billion per year) and increased market premium for their products.
WTO, World Trade Organisation, CGE modelling, GTAP, development, Least Developed Countries, LDCs, global value chains, GVC, Generalized System of Preferences, GSP