IS THE UK PRODUCTIVITY SLOWDOWN UNPRECEDENTED?
IS THE UK PRODUCTIVITY SLOWDOWN UNPRECEDENTED?
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DOI：
10.1017/nie.2020.6
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发表时间：
2020-02-01
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Mills, Terence C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Crafts, Nicholas;Mills, Terence C.
我们使用 Hodrick-Prescott 过滤方法估计英国劳动生产率增长趋势。我们使用这些结果来比较经济低于其先前趋势的低迷时期。我们发现，当前生产率放缓导致 2018 年生产率比 2008 年之前的趋势路径低 19.7%。这几乎是经济衰退开始十年后最严重生产率缺口的两倍。按照这个标准，经济放缓是过去 250 年来前所未有的。我们推测，这反映了不利环境的综合影响，即金融危机、信息通信技术影响力减弱以及即将到来的英国脱欧。
We estimate trend UK labour productivity growth using a Hodrick-Prescott filter method. We use the results to compare downturns where the economy fell below its pre-existing trend. We find that the current productivity slowdown has resulted in productivity being 19.7 per cent below the pre-2008 trend path in 2018. This is nearly double the previous worst productivity shortfall ten years after the start of a downturn. On this criterion the slowdown is unprecedented in the past 250 years. We conjecture that this reflects a combination of adverse circumstances, namely, a financial crisis, a weakening impact of ICT and impending Brexit.