IMPACT OF POPULATION GROWTH
IMPACT OF POPULATION GROWTH
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DOI：
10.1126/science.171.3977.1212
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发表时间：
1971-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
HOLDREN, JP
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
EHRLICH, PR;HOLDREN, JP
人口、资源和环境的连锁危机一直是无数论文、数十个著名研讨会和越来越多的书籍的焦点。在这些丰富的材料中，一些有问题的说法越来越频繁地出现。其中最严重的问题可能是，美国的规模和增长率。S.人口增长对这个国家对当地和全球环境的不利影响只有很小的贡献（1，2）。我们建议在持续不断的、无法反驳的重复使这些误解在公众头脑中（而不是科学文献中）根深蒂固之前，在这里处理这些误解和几个相关的误解。本文围绕五个定理展开讨论，认为这五个定理是正确的，并为现实分析提供了框架：1）人口增长对环境造成不成比例的负面影响。2）人口规模和增长、资源利用和消耗以及环境恶化问题必须在全球基础上共同考虑。在这种情况下，控制人口显然不是万灵药，它是必要的，但不足以使我们度过危机。3)人口密度是衡量人口压力的一个很差的指标，重新分配人口将是解决人口问题的一个危险的伪解决方案。
The interlocking crises in population, resources, and environment have been the focus of countless papers, dozens of prestigious symposia, and a growing avalanche of books. In this wealth of material, several questionable assertions have been appearing with increasing frequency. Perhaps the most serious of these is the notion that the size and growth rate of theU. S. popu-lation are only minor contributors to this country's adverse impact on local and global environments (1, 2). We propose to deal with this and several related misconceptions here, before persistent and unrebutted repetition entrenches them in thepublic mindif not the scientific literature. Our dis-cussion centers around five theorems which we believe are demonstrably true and which provide a framework for realistic analysis: 1) Population growth causes a dis-proportionate negative impact on the environment.2) Problems of population size and growth, resource utilization and deple-tion, and environmental deterioration must be considered jointly and on a global basis. In this context, popula-tion control is obviously not a panacea-it is necessary but not alone sufficient to see us through the crisis. 3) Population density is a poor measure of population pressure, and re-distributing population would be a dangerous pseudosolution to the pop-ulation problem.