Tension between reducing sea-level rise and global warming through solar-radiation management
Tension between reducing sea-level rise and global warming through solar-radiation management
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate1351
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发表时间：
2012-02-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Keller, K.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Irvine, P. J.;Sriver, R. L.;Keller, K.
利用太阳辐射管理（SRM）的地球工程作为一种减少未来气候变化影响的潜在战略，正在引起人们的兴趣。基础物理学和过去的观察表明，平均而言，减少日照会使地球降温。然而，SRM是否能减少气候变化的压力源，如海平面上升或地表空气温度变化率，这是不确定的（1，4 -6）。在这里，我们使用一个中等复杂性的地球系统模型来量化海平面和地表气温对预计气候强迫（7）和SRM策略的可能响应。我们发现，SRM战略引入了一个潜在的强大的张力之间的目标，以减少（1）温度变化率和（2）海平面上升。这种紧张主要是因为地表空气温度对辐射强迫的反应比海平面更快。我们的研究结果表明，阻止海平面上升所需的强迫可能会导致快速冷却，其速度与正常情况下的峰值变暖速度相似。此外，研究发现，SRM的终止产生的变暖速率比一切照旧的CO2情景下的最大速率高出5倍，而海平面上升速率仅高出30%。减少这些风险需要几十年的缓慢淘汰，从而使子孙后代承担责任。
Geoengineering using solar-radiation management (SRM) is gaining interest as a potential strategy to reduce future climate change impacts(1-3). Basic physics and past observations suggest that reducing insolation will, on average, cool the Earth. It is uncertain, however, whether SRM can reduce climate change stressors such as sea-level rise or rates of surface air temperature change(1,4-6). Here we use an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to quantify the possible response of sea levels and surface air temperatures to projected climate forcings(7) and SRM strategies. We find that SRM strategies introduce a potentially strong tension between the objectives to reduce (1) the rate of temperature change and (2) sea-level rise. This tension arises primarily because surface air temperatures respond faster to radiative forcings than sea levels. Our results show that the forcing required to stop sea-level rise could cause a rapid cooling with a rate similar to the peak business-as-usual warming rate. Furthermore, termination of SRM was found to produce warming rates up to five times greater than the maximum rates under the business-as-usual CO2 scenario, whereas sea-level rise rates were only 30% higher. Reducing these risks requires a slow phase-out of many decades and thus commits future generations.