The disease burden of hepatitis B in Uzbekistan
The disease burden of hepatitis B in Uzbekistan
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DOI：
10.1053/jinf.1998.0666
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发表时间：
2000-05-01
影响因子：
28.2
通讯作者：
Yasin, T
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Beutels, P;Musabaev, EI;Yasin, T
目的：通过基于模型的估计来描述乌兹别克斯坦乙型肝炎疾病的负担。方法：开发数学模拟模型来模拟乙型肝炎的疾病演变，并计算根据疾病演变定义的特定 HBV 患者群体的规模和年龄。结果：计算表明，乌兹别克斯坦 678 000 名新生儿中，有 159 185 名（每 1000 人中有 235 名）在某个时间会发生 HEY 感染。他们一生中的时间。大约 55 095 人（每 1000 人中 81 人）将成为乙型肝炎慢性携带者，预计有 6307 人（每 1000 人中 9.3 人）在死于其他原因之前死于乙型肝炎。在总人口中，我们计算出每年约有 3074 名乌兹别克人死于乙型肝炎的后果。这些过早 HBV 死亡中只有 3.2% 是由于急性乙型肝炎，而 96.8% 是由于急性乙型肝炎。据计算，乌兹别克斯坦 2.1% 的死亡（或每 47 例死亡中的 1 例）和近 25% 的死亡（或四分之一的死亡）在 30 岁至 40 岁之间是由乙型肝炎引起的，根据基本但非常保守的成本效益计算，疫苗接种似乎很容易辩护（预防每个携带者 84 美元；预防每次死亡 735 美元；每生命年 22 新元）结论：乙型肝炎在乌兹别克斯坦是一个巨大的健康问题，特别是在年轻人中。通过疫苗接种进行预防的潜力似乎非常高，但如果要减少慢性肝炎，则需要有长远的眼光。在乌兹别克斯坦，常规乙型肝炎疫苗接种被认为是一种相对具有成本效益的干预措施。 (C) 2000 年英国感染学会。
Objective: To describe the burden of hepatitis B illness in Uzbekistan by means of model-based estimates.Methods: A mathematical simulation model was developed to mimic the disease evolution of hepatitis B and calculate the size and age of specific HBV patient groups, defined according to the evolution of their illness.Results: The calculations indicate that of 678 000 neonates in Uzbekistan, 159 185 (235 per 1000) would incur an HEY infection at some time during their lives. About 55 095 persons (81 per 1000) would become chronic carriers of hepatitis B and 6307 persons (9.3 per 1000) are expected to die due to hepatitis B before they would die from another cause, In the overall population, we calculated that about 3074 Uzbeki die each year from the consequences of hepatitis B. Only 3.2% of these premature HBV-deaths are due to acute hepatitis B, whereas 96.8% are due to chronic hepatitis B, It was calculated that 2.1% of all deaths (or 1 in 47 deaths), and nearly 25% of deaths (or one in four deaths) between 30 and 40 pars of age in Uzbekistan are due to hepatitis B, Vaccination seems easily defensible an the basis of rudimentary but very conservative cost-effectiveness calculations ($84 per carrier prevented; $735 per death prevented and S 22 per life-year gained).Conclusions: Hepatitis B represents a huge health problem in Uzbekistan, especially in young adults, The potential for prevention by vaccination seems very high, but demands a long-term vision if chronic hepatitis, in particular is to be reduced. Routine hepatitis B vaccination was found to be a relatively cost-effective intervention in Uzbekistan. (C) 2000 The British infection Society.