UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS FOR MULTI-REGION INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS - A CASE STUDY OF THE UK'S CARBON FOOTPRINT
UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS FOR MULTI-REGION INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS - A CASE STUDY OF THE UK'S CARBON FOOTPRINT
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DOI：
10.1080/09535311003661226
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发表时间：
2010-01-01
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Wiedmann, Thomas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lenzen, Manfred;Wood, Richard;Wiedmann, Thomas
本文回顾并论证了在多区域投入产出框架下估算碳乘数标准差的方法。我们试图捕捉所有可能的变化的基础数据和计算程序，在全球MRIO模型构建，特别侧重于英国。我们认为这些变化是随机的，并确定整个MRIO系统的随机变化，使用Monte Carlo技术。进行5000次模拟运行以确定乘数的标准偏差。从这些，英国的碳足迹的组件的标准偏差估计使用误差传播。我们估计，英国的碳足迹在1994年至2004年期间增加的可能性为89%。
This paper reviews and demonstrates methods available for estimating standard deviations for carbon multipliers in a multi-regional input-output (MRIO) framework. We attempt to capture all possible variations of underlying data and calculation procedures in a global MRIO model constructed with particular focus on the UK. We consider these variations to be random, and determine the stochastic variation of the whole MRIO system using Monte Carlo techniques. 5000 simulation runs were carried out to determine the standard deviations of multipliers. From these, the standard deviations of components of the UK's carbon footprint were estimated using error propagation. We estimate an 89% probability that the UK's carbon footprint has increased between 1994 and 2004.