Global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
Global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
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DOI：
10.1016/s0140-6736(14)60460-8
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发表时间：
2014-08-30
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Gakidou E
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作者：
Ng M;Fleming T;Robinson M;Thomson B;Graetz N;Margono C;Mullany EC;Biryukov S;Abbafati C;Abera SF;Abraham JP;Abu-Rmeileh NM;Achoki T;AlBuhairan FS;Alemu ZA;Alfonso R;Ali MK;Ali R;Guzman NA;Ammar W;Anwari P;Banerjee A;Barquera S;Basu S;Bennett DA;Bhutta Z;Blore J;Cabral N;Nonato IC;Chang JC;Chowdhury R;Courville KJ;Criqui MH;Cundiff DK;Dabhadkar KC;Dandona L;Davis A;Dayama A;Dharmaratne SD;Ding EL;Durrani AM;Esteghamati A;Farzadfar F;Fay DF;Feigin VL;Flaxman A;Forouzanfar MH;Goto A;Green MA;Gupta R;Hafezi-Nejad N;Hankey GJ;Harewood HC;Havmoeller R;Hay S;Hernandez L;Husseini A;Idrisov BT;Ikeda N;Islami F;Jahangir E;Jassal SK;Jee SH;Jeffreys M;Jonas JB;Kabagambe EK;Khalifa SE;Kengne AP;Khader YS;Khang YH;Kim D;Kimokoti RW;Kinge JM;Kokubo Y;Kosen S;Kwan G;Lai T;Leinsalu M;Li Y;Liang X;Liu S;Logroscino G;Lotufo PA;Lu Y;Ma J;Mainoo NK;Mensah GA;Merriman TR;Mokdad AH;Moschandreas J;Naghavi M;Naheed A;Nand D;Narayan KM;Nelson EL;Neuhouser ML;Nisar MI;Ohkubo T;Oti SO;Pedroza A;Prabhakaran D;Roy N;Sampson U;Seo H;Sepanlou SG;Shibuya K;Shiri R;Shiue I;Singh GM;Singh JA;Skirbekk V;Stapelberg NJ;Sturua L;Sykes BL;Tobias M;Tran BX;Trasande L;Toyoshima H;van de Vijver S;Vasankari TJ;Veerman JL;Velasquez-Melendez G;Vlassov VV;Vollset SE;Vos T;Wang C;Wang X;Weiderpass E;Werdecker A;Wright JL;Yang YC;Yatsuya H;Yoon J;Yoon SJ;Zhao Y;Zhou M;Zhu S;Lopez AD;Murray CJ;Gakidou E
2010年，超重和肥胖估计造成340万人死亡，占全球生命损失年数的3.9%和残疾调整生命年的3.8%。肥胖人数的增加导致人们普遍呼吁定期监测所有人群中超重和肥胖患病率的变化。关于水平和趋势的比较的最新信息对于量化人口健康影响和促使决策者确定行动的优先次序至关重要。我们系统地确定了包括身高和体重信息的调查、报告和已发表的研究（n = 1,769），包括身体测量和自我报告。采用混合效应线性回归对自我报告中的偏差进行校正。使用时空高斯过程回归模型对年龄-性别-国家-年份（n = 19,244）的肥胖和超重患病率进行综合，以95%的不确定性区间估计患病率。在全球范围内，男性体重指数（BMI）为25或更高的成年人比例从1980年的28.8% （95% UI: 28.4-29.3）增加到2013年的36.9%(36.3-37.4)，女性从29.8%（29.3-30.2）增加到38.0%（37.5-38.5）。在发达国家和发展中国家都观察到增加。发达国家儿童和青少年的患病率大幅上升，2013年有23.8%（22.9- 24.7%）的男孩和22.6%（21.7-23.6）的女孩超重或肥胖。在发展中国家的儿童和青少年中，超重和肥胖的患病率也在上升，2013年男孩从8.1%（7.7-8.6）上升到12.9%(12.3-13.5)，女孩从8.4%（8.1-8.8）上升到13.4%（13.0-13.9）。在成人中，估计汤加男性和科威特、基里巴斯、密克罗尼西亚联邦、利比亚、卡塔尔、汤加和萨摩亚的女性肥胖患病率超过50%。自2006年以来，发达国家成人肥胖的增长已趋于稳定。由于已确定的健康风险和患病率的大幅增加，肥胖已成为一项重大的全球健康挑战。与其他主要全球风险相反，几乎没有证据表明成功的人口层面干预战略可以减少暴露。肥胖不仅在增加，而且在过去的33年里没有一个全国性的成功案例。需要紧急采取全球行动并发挥领导作用，以协助各国更有效地进行干预。
In 2010, overweight and obesity were estimated to cause 3.4 million deaths, 3.9% of years of life lost, and 3.8% of DALYs globally. The rise in obesity has led to widespread calls for regular monitoring of changes in overweight and obesity prevalence in all populations. Comparative, up-to-date information on levels and trends is essential both to quantify population health effects and to prompt decision-makers to prioritize action. We systematically identified surveys, reports, and published studies (n = 1,769) that included information on height and weight, both through physical measurements and self-reports. Mixed effects linear regression was used to correct for the bias in self-reports. Age-sex-country-year observations (n = 19,244) on prevalence of obesity and overweight were synthesized using a spatio-temporal Gaussian Process Regression model to estimate prevalence with 95% uncertainty intervals. Globally, the proportion of adults with a body mass index (BMI) of 25 or greater increased from 28.8% (95% UI: 28.4-29.3) in 1980 to 36.9% (36.3-37.4) in 2013 for men and from 29.8% (29.3-30.2) to 38.0% (37.5-38.5) for women. Increases were observed in both developed and developing countries. There have been substantial increases in prevalence among children and adolescents in developed countries, with 23.8% (22.9-24.7) of boys and 22.6% (21.7-23.6) of girls being either overweight or obese in 2013. The prevalence of overweight and obesity is also rising among children and adolescents in developing countries as well, rising from 8.1% (7.7-8.6) to 12.9% (12.3-13.5) in 2013 for boys and from 8.4% (8.1-8.8) to 13.4% (13.0-13.9) in girls. Among adults, estimated prevalence of obesity exceeds 50% among men in Tonga and women in Kuwait, Kiribati, Federated States of Micronesia, Libya, Qatar, Tonga, and Samoa. Since 2006, the increase in adult obesity in developed countries has stabilized. Because of the established health risks and substantial increases in prevalence, obesity has become a major global health challenge. Contrary to other major global risks, there is little evidence of successful population-level intervention strategies to reduce exposure. Not only is obesity increasing, but there are no national success stories over the past 33 years. Urgent global action and leadership is required to assist countries to more effectively intervene.