Quantifying Tax Effects Under Policy Foresight
Quantifying Tax Effects Under Policy Foresight
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量化政策预见下的税收影响
DOI：
10.1016/j.jmoneco.2004.09.003
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发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Shu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Shu
税收效应的研究使传统的信息假设，在第t期税收的变化是已知的。然而，立法滞后意味着消息在税收变化发生之前就已经到来。因此，在政策预见的情况下，传统的信息结构是错误的。一个标准的新古典增长模型的模拟表明，只有一个季度的前瞻性可以扭曲在无前瞻性假设下获得的税收影响的估计大大。此外，将资本税和劳动税分别建模也是至关重要的：这两种税收政策的预期变化在政策实现之前对消费、投资、劳动和产出产生相反的影响。
Studies of tax effects make the conventional information assumption that changes in period-t taxes become known at t. Legislative lags, however, imply that news arrives before tax changes take place. Under policy foreknowledge, the conventional information structure is therefore misspecified. Simulations of a standard neoclassical growth model suggest that foresight of only one quarter can distort substantially the estimates of tax effects obtained under the no-foresight assumption. Also, it is crucial to model capital and labor taxes separately: anticipated changes in these two tax policies have opposite effects on consumption, investment, labor, and output before policy realization.