Climate change increases global risk to urban forests
Climate change increases global risk to urban forests
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气候变化增加了城市森林的全球风险
DOI：
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
R. Gallagher
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Esperón;M. Tjoelker;J. Lenoir;J. Baumgartner;L. Beaumont;David A. Nipperess;S. Power;Benoît Richard;P. Rymer;R. Gallagher
气候变化威胁着城市树木的健康和生存，以及它们为城市居民带来的各种好处。在78个国家的164个城市中，56%和65%的物种目前分别超过了其地理范围内的温度和降水条件。我们评估了3，129种树木和灌木，使用与气候脆弱性相关的三个指标：暴露，安全边际和风险。到2050年，在代表性浓度路径6.0下，2，387（76%）和2，220（70%）物种将分别受到平均年温度和年降水量预测变化的威胁。据预测，在低纬度的城市，如新德里和新加坡，风险最大，那里所有的城市树种都容易受到气候变化的影响。这些发现有助于评估气候变化的影响，以确保城市森林提供的长期利益。对全球164个城市地区的3,129种树木和灌木进行评估后发现，超过一半的树木和灌木目前正处于非理想的气候条件下。他们预测到2050年，由于气候变化，风险会增加，并强调所有物种都面临风险的城市。
Climate change threatens the health and survival of urban trees and the various benefits they deliver to urban inhabitants. Here, we show that 56% and 65% of species in 164 cities across 78 countries are currently exceeding temperature and precipitation conditions experienced in their geographic range, respectively. We assessed 3,129 tree and shrub species, using three metrics related to climate vulnerability: exposure, safety margin and risk. By 2050 under Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0, 2,387 (76%) and 2,220 (70%) species will be at risk from projected changes in mean annual temperature and annual precipitation, respectively. Risk is predicted to be greatest in cities at low latitudes—such as New Delhi and Singapore—where all urban tree species are vulnerable to climate change. These findings aid the evaluation of the impacts of climate change to secure long-term benefits provided by urban forests. Assessing 3,129 species of trees and shrubs found in 164 global urban areas shows that over half of the species currently experience non-ideal climates. They project increases in risk due to climate change by 2050 and highlight cities where all species are at risk.
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
Manoli, Gabriele;Fatichi, Simone;Bou-Zeid, Elie
通讯作者：
Bou-Zeid, Elie
影响因子：
30.7
作者：
LE I Zhao
通讯作者：
LE I Zhao