Reducing doubt about uncertainty: Guidance for IPCC’s third assessment
Reducing doubt about uncertainty: Guidance for IPCC’s third assessment
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减少对不确定性的怀疑：IPCC 第三次评估指南
DOI：
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
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通讯作者：
R. Moss
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Moss
通常有必要利用不完整和不确定的信息来为政策和决策提供信息，这就需要描述知识状况，并确定何时可以获得更确定的信息。毕竟，有信息总比没有好，相反，如果只有在做出决定后才能获得信息，即使是完美的信息也毫无用处。在对全球变化进行科学评估方面，由于科学的复杂性、时间跨度长、政治和经济利害关系大等因素，挑战尤其严峻。Moss和Schneider为政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）的第三次评估报告（TAR）编写了不确定性指南，该指南建议了一个程序，使专家对置信度和不确定性水平的判断更加系统和透明。该指南提供了经校准的不确定性术语，以改善向用户传达调查结果的情况，并敦促编写一份可追溯的报告，说明作者对每项主要调查结果的证据评估。本文回顾了这些建议及其有效性，并强调了随后的批评和后续评估报告的不确定性指南的演变。它讨论了在日益增加的模型分辨率和复杂性以及对信息的兴趣日益高涨的时代，为区域和更精细尺度的适应和缓解提供科学决策方面的新挑战。
It is usually necessary to apply incomplete and uncertain information to inform policy and decision making, creating the need to characterize the state of knowledge and identify when more certain information may be available. After all, some information is better than none and conversely, even perfect information is of no use if it is available only after a decision has been made. In scientific assessments for global change, the challenges are particularly acute because of scientific complexity, long time horizons, and large political and economic stakes, among other factors. Moss and Schneider prepared uncertainty guidelines for the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that recommended a process to make expert judgments of levels of confidence and uncertainty more systematic and transparent. The guidance provided calibrated uncertainty terms to improve communication of findings to users and urged preparation of a traceable account of the authors’ assessment of the evidence for each major finding. This article reviews the recommendations and their effectiveness and highlights ensuing critiques and the evolution of uncertainty guidance for subsequent assessment reports. It discusses emerging challenges in providing science for decision making in the era of increasing model resolution and complexity and burgeoning interest in information to inform adaptation and mitigation at regional and finer scales.