A coupled high-resolution hydrodynamic and cellular automata-based evacuation route planning model for pedestrians in flooding scenarios
A coupled high-resolution hydrodynamic and cellular automata-based evacuation route planning model for pedestrians in flooding scenarios
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DOI：
10.1007/s11069-021-04960-x
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发表时间：
2021-08
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Bingyao Li;J. Hou;Yongyong Ma;Ganggang Bai;Tian Wang;Guoxin Xu;Binzhong Wu;Yongbao Jiao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bingyao Li;J. Hou;Yongyong Ma;Ganggang Bai;Tian Wang;Guoxin Xu;Binzhong Wu;Yongbao Jiao
洪水正在成为最常见和分布最广的自然灾害之一，给世界各地的人类生命和财产造成重大损失。在洪水事件期间疏散行人是洪水风险管理的一个关键因素，除了挽救人们的生命和增加救援时间。本研究的主要目的是提出一个最短疏散路径规划算法，考虑到疏散区域和人员在洪水期间的不稳定性。利用启发式搜索算法中的对角距离计算方法，建立了一种基于元胞自动机的最短路径优化算法。以2008年英国发生的莫尔佩斯洪水为例，采用高精度、高效率的二维水动力学模型，探讨了洪泛区的洪水特性。两种洪水灾害评估方法[即，经验和力学为基础的和实验校准（M&E）]被选择来研究人的不稳定性。一个全面的分析表明，极端事件更好地确定与力学为基础的实验校准方法比经验的方法。将M&E的结果作为莫尔佩斯疏散场景的初始条件。通过对莫尔佩斯疏散路径规划的实例分析表明，该算法可以实现微尺度下多起点、多终点的最短路径规划。研究结果对洪水风险管理和应急疏散研究具有重要意义。
Flooding is now becoming one of the most frequent and widely distributed natural hazards, with significant losses to human lives and property around the world. Evacuation of pedestrians during flooding events is a crucial factor in flood risk management, in addition to saving people’s lives and increasing time for rescue. The key objective of this work is to propose a shortest evacuation path planning algorithm by considering the evacuable areas and human instability during floods. A shortest route optimization algorithm based on cellular automata is established while using diagonal distance calculation methods in heuristic search algorithms. The Morpeth flood event that occurred in 2008 in the UK is used as a case study, and a highly accurate and efficient 2D hydrodynamic model is adopted to discuss the flood characteristics in flood plains. Two flood hazard assessment approaches [i.e., empirical and mechanics-based and experimental calibrated (M&E)] are chosen to study human instability. A comprehensive analysis shows that extreme events are better identified with mechanics-based and experimental calibration methods than with an empirical method. The result of M&E is used as the initial condition for the Morpeth evacuation scenario. Evacuation path planning in Morpeth shows that this algorithm can realize shortest route planning with multiple starting points and ending points at the microscale. These findings are of significance for flood risk management and emergency evacuation research.