ACHIEVEMENTS AND COUNTERMEASURES IN RISK REDUCTION OF GEOLOGICAL DISASTERS IN CHINA
ACHIEVEMENTS AND COUNTERMEASURES IN RISK REDUCTION OF GEOLOGICAL DISASTERS IN CHINA
复制标题
我国地质灾害减灾工作的成效与对策
DOI：
10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2019-232
复制
发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Chen Chunli
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu Chuanzheng;Chen Chunli
本文总结了中国在地质灾害防治方面取得的成就。取得成果的领域包括调查和评估、监测和预警、工程对策、应急反应、信息系统、技术设备、技术标准、学术研究、行业发展和法律建设。本文采用了统计分析的方法。基本数据来自1995年至2018年中国国家地质灾害公报。它们包括一年内的死亡或失踪人数和直接经济损失。分析表明，1995-2000年每年因地质灾害死亡1205人，2001-2005年每年884人，2006-2010年每年776人(不包括2010年8月8日甘肃省舟曲市洪涝泥石流死亡1765人)，2011-2017年每年395人，2018年仅112人。2001年至2010年，194702起地质灾害共造成直接经济损失385.3亿元。平均每年发生地质灾害19.47万次，每次损失19.9万元。2011年至2018年，84718起地质灾害共造成直接经济损失355.7亿元。平均每年发生地质灾害10.6万次，每次损失419.9万元。显然，地质灾害的总量随着时间的推移而减少，但每次的经济损失都在增加。自2001年以来，直接经济损失占国内生产总值的比重每年下降0.016‰。2003-2018年地质灾害预测准确率由5%提高到20%。城乡社区需要紧急避险的人数减少。结果表明，防灾减灾措施是有效的。它们包括地质灾害调查和评估、监测和预警、岩土工程、搬迁和避免、应急反应和缓解管理。本文论述了地质风险的现状及存在的问题。这些因素包括减灾文化薄弱、法律制度不成熟以及经济损失统计(不包括工程和建筑业)的局限性。最后，本文提出了政府、企业、个人、社会(包括保险)和学术界五位一体的减灾合作伙伴关系。
This paper summarizes the achievements in reduction of geological disasters in China. The areas of the achievements include survey and assessments, monitoring and early warnings, engineering countermeasures, emergency responses, information systems, technical equipment, technical standards, academic research, industry developments and construction of laws. Statistic analysis is used in the paper. Basic data are from national bulletins on geological disasters of P. R. China from 1995 to 2018. They consist of deaths or missing number of people and direct economic losses in a year. The analysis shows that numbers of fatalities by geological disasters are 1205 per year during 1995-2000, 884 per year during 2001-2005, 776 per year during 2006-2010(without the 1765 deaths from the flood-debris of Aug.8, 2010 in Zhouqu city, Gansu province), 395 per year during 2011-2017, and only 112 in 2018. During 2001-2010, the 194702 geological disasters caused direct economic loss of 38.53 billion RMB yuan. Averagely, 19.47 thousand geological disasters per year and 197.9 thousand RMB yuan loss per time. During 2011-2018, the 84718 geological disasters caused direct economic loss of 35.57 billion RMB yuan. Averagely, 10.6 thousand geological disasters per year and 419.9 thousand RMB yuan loss per time. Obviously, the total amount of geological disasters decrease along time, but economic loss increases per time. The proportion of direct economic loss of GDP declined 0.016‰per year since 2001. The prediction accuracy of geological disaster raised from 5%to 20%during 2003-2018. The number of people in urban and rural communities who need emergency hedging decreases. The results show that measurements to reduce geological disasters are prove to be effective. They include geological hazard survey and assessment, monitoring and early warning, geotechnical engineering, relocation and avoidance, emergency response and mitigation management. The paper discusses the current situation and existing problems with geological risk. They include weak disaster reduction culture, immature legal system and limitations of economic loss statistics(not including engineering and construction industry). Finally, the paper proposes a five-in-one partnership for disaster reduction which involves the government, enterprises, individuals, society(including insurance) and academia.