A laboratory‐based study of understanding of uncertainty in 5‐day site‐specific temperature forecasts
A laboratory‐based study of understanding of uncertainty in 5‐day site‐specific temperature forecasts
复制标题
基于实验室的研究，了解 5 天特定地点温度预报的不确定性
DOI：
10.1002/met.113
复制
发表时间：
2009
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Todd R. Kaplan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Roulston;Todd R. Kaplan
在实验经济学实验室中测试了5天特定地点温度预测的不确定性对非专业人员决策的影响。研究人员要求学习一系列学科的本科生在给定的5天天气预报中，从涉及温度的两个标准中选择最可能发生的一个。如果他们选择了一个随后被满足的标准，他们就会得到一小笔现金奖励。研究发现，除了预期温度之外，学生在面对不确定性信息（第50和90百分位置信区间）时更有可能选择最可能的标准。这与参与者所学习的学术科目无关。版权所有©英国皇家气象学会和英国皇家版权所有，2008
The impact of presenting uncertainty in 5‐day location‐specific temperature forecasts on the decision making of non‐specialists was tested in an experimental economics laboratory. Undergraduate students studying a range of disciplines were asked to select which of two criteria involving temperature would be most likely to occur based on a given 5‐day forecast. If they selected a criterion that was subsequently satisfied they were given a small cash reward. It was found that students presented with uncertainty information (the 50th and 90th percentile confidence intervals) in addition to the expected temperature were more likely to select the most probable criterion. This was true irrespective of the academic subject the participants were studying. Copyright © Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright, 2008