Stochastic SIRC epidemic model with time-delay for COVID-19
Stochastic SIRC epidemic model with time-delay for COVID-19
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DOI：
10.1186/s13662-020-02964-8
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发表时间：
2020-09-18
影响因子：
4.1
通讯作者：
Rajivganthi, C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Rihan, F. A.;Alsakaji, H. J.;Rajivganthi, C.
环境因素，如湿度、降雨量和温度，对新的冠状病毒株新冠肺炎向人类传播有重大影响。本文利用一类具有交叉免疫和传播时滞的随机传染病模型来研究新冠肺炎的传播。我们分析了该模型，并证明了正整体解的存在唯一性。我们推导出随机模型的基本再生数R0小于相应确定性模型的基本再生数R0。利用随机Lyapunov函数，得到了保证存在唯一的遍历平稳分布的充分条件和疾病灭绝的条件。结果表明，白噪声在控制疾病传播中起着重要作用；当白噪声较大时，传染病将灭绝；由于传播项中反馈时滞(或记忆)的存在，可能会发生再次感染和周期性暴发。
Environmental factors, such as humidity, precipitation, and temperature, have significant impacts on the spread of the new strain coronavirus COVID-19 to humans. In this paper, we use a stochastic epidemic SIRC model, with cross-immune class and time-delay in transmission terms, for the spread of COVID-19. We analyze the model and prove the existence and uniqueness of positive global solution. We deduce the basic reproduction number R0s for the stochastic model which is smaller than R0 of the corresponding deterministic model. Sufficient conditions that guarantee the existence of a unique ergodic stationary distribution, using the stochastic Lyapunov function, and conditions for the extinction of the disease are obtained. Our findings show that white noise plays an important part in controlling the spread of the disease; When the white noise is relatively large, the infectious diseases will become extinct; Re-infection and periodic outbreaks can occur due to the existence of feedback time-delay (or memory) in the transmission terms.