The Structural Determinants of Democratic Consolidation
The Structural Determinants of Democratic Consolidation
复制标题
民主巩固的结构性决定因素
DOI：
10.1177/0010414098031006003
复制
发表时间：
1998
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
T. Power
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Gasiorowski;T. Power
民主巩固是一个新建立的民主政权变得足够持久的过程，不再可能回到非民主统治。作者研究了一系列可能影响第三世界国家民主巩固的结构性因素，使用了三个巩固指标和多元统计技术。作者的主要发现是，与发展相关的社会经济因素、民主邻国的传染效应和高通胀都强烈影响着整合的可能性，尽管后者只在研究期间的早期才显着。其他几个因素没有明显的影响，包括涉及政治文化和民主体制设计的几项措施。这三个因素共同有力地预测了哪些第三世界民主国家能够实现巩固，这表明以过程为中心的民主巩固文献对结构性因素的影响关注不够。
Democratic consolidation is the process by which a newly established democratic regime becomes sufficiently durable that a return to nondemocratic rule is no longer likely. The authors examine a wide range of structural factors that may affect democratic consolidation in Third World countries, using three indicators of consolidation and multivariate statistical techniques. The authors' main finding is that development-related socioeconomic factors, the contagion effect of democratic neighbors, and high inflation each strongly affect the likelihood of consolidation, although the latter was significant only in the early part of the period studied. Several other factors have no apparent effect, including several measures dealing with political culture and the design of democratic institutions. These three factors together strongly predict which Third World democracies achieve consolidation, suggesting that the process-centric literature on democratic consolidation has paid inadequate attention to the effects of structural factors.