Wage inequality and poverty effects of lockdown and social distancing in Europe
Wage inequality and poverty effects of lockdown and social distancing in Europe
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DOI：
10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103564
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发表时间：
2020-10-01
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Sebastian, Raquel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Palomino, Juan C.;Rodriguez, Juan G.;Sebastian, Raquel
为遏制COVID-19蔓延而采取的社交距离及封锁措施可能会产生超过国内生产总值收缩的分配经济成本。在这里，我们根据锁定工作能力指数评估个人在锁定条件下的工作能力，该指数考虑他们的远程工作能力以及他们的职业是必要的还是封闭的。我们的分析揭示了欧洲各地分配的大量和不均匀的潜在工资损失，我们一致发现，所有欧洲国家的贫困和工资不平等都在上升。在四种不同的情景下（2个月的封锁和2个月的封锁加上6个月的封闭职业部分运作，80%，70%和60%的全能力），我们估计29个欧洲国家的人口贫困指数平均增加4.9至9.4个百分点，贫困工人的平均损失率在10%至16.2%之间。基尼系数的平均增长幅度在3.5%至7.3%之间，视所考虑的情况而定。分解欧洲的整体工资不平等，我们发现，封锁和社会距离措施产生了双重分化过程：国家内部和国家之间的不平等增加。(C)2020 Elsevier B. V.保留所有权利。
Social distancing and lockdown measures taken to contain the spread of COVID-19 may have distributional economic costs beyond the contraction of GDP. Here we evaluate the capacity of individuals to work under a lockdown based on a Lockdown Working Ability index which considers their teleworking capacity and whether their occupation is essential or closed. Our analysis reveals substantial and uneven potential wage losses across the distribution all around Europe and we consistently find that both poverty and wage inequality rise in all European countries. Under four different scenarios (2 months of lockdown and 2 months of lockdown plus 6 months of partial functioning of closed occupations at 80%, 70% and 60% of full capacity) we estimate for 29 European countries an average increase in the headcount poverty index that goes from 4.9 to 9.4 percentage points and a mean loss rate for poor workers between 10% and 16.2%. The average increase in the Gini coefficient ranges between 3.5% to 7.3% depending on the scenario considered. Decomposing overall wage inequality in Europe, we find that lockdown and social distance measures produce a double process of divergence: both inequality within and between countries increase. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.